Narddog

🧵I've managed &amp; provided consulting to businesses with revenues ranging from $5-$50mm and &gt; 75% migrant employed.

Let me tell you about the migrant (foreign) workforce, and why this deranged charlatan is lying through his teeth.

1/20

First, his claim on migrant workforce status is very, very wrong. Most of our "illegal workforce" is actually here legally, and this has been the status quo for decades. This is where our problem starts and it is relatively simple to grasp the exponential effects.

The "migrants" arrive legally typically via the H2A/H2B visa program, which is a way for American employers to literally offer (temporary) jobs to foreigners, recognized as legitimate immigrants for employment by the US Govt. 

Both H2A/H2B are the core source of our workforce issues, but for different reasons. For that, we will focus on H2B, which applies to all non agricultural jobs. 

2/20

Let's define employment status via H2B, since @ChadCarleton is insistent on himself and other upright, virtuous businessmen hiring these immigrants as legal.

The immigrant arrives via an offer of employment from an American business. Although, the employment status is temporary and has an expiration date. A "maximum" of 66k employment approvals are given every year, since 1992, with Congress doubling that allowance for next year.

So, business don't need to hire illegals, when Congress will allow for the literal importation of (at least) 66k every year. 

A fresh replenishment of 130k every year ad infinitum!

3/20

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2024/11/15/dhs-supplement-h-2b-cap-nearly-65000-additional-visas-fiscal-year-2025#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20–%20Today%2C%20the%20Department%20of,H%2D2B%20visas%20that%20are

ICE, the morally upright and competent agency that manages our border, is responsible for managing the arrival, status and exportation of these people once expired. 

So what does ICE do once the status is expired? Usually, nothing. Grok admits this.

The management system for monitoring status compares overall data and allows for error via discrepancy in entries/exits.

4/20

However, this entire system is contingent on employers reporting status of the H2B workers accurately via USCIS I-129 status.

5/20

https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-2b-temporary-non-agricultural-workers 

@ChadCarleton  mentions this is a risky game, insinuating Feds targets people who violate these rules!

Ah, that would only be true, if we assumed all business owners report the violations! 

Remember, the internal monitoring system relies solely on employers reporting - if there are no violations from employers, the system is working legitimately!

6/20

Business owners don't report violations, ever. The businesses that started using migrant labor decades ago have become hooked - the migrant laborer is their lifeline. And for wage suppression - this is where @ChadCarleton is very, very wrong.

They work for lower wages. If they didn't, the programs would not work and business owners would have no incentive to employ them.

People are imported from all over the world in this program - Jamaica, Ecuador, Venezuela, Thailand, Cambodia et al. with an understanding of working hourly, manual labor with unlimited overtime.

I've seen it, I've watched owners employee hundreds of migrant adults for wages that minors receive. I've seen payrolls with 50 year old foreigners working in kitchens at the same hourly rate of a minor taking orders on a POS.

This distorts the actual value of wages for the business because the workers (migrants) accepted an artificially lower wage in the past, and the future business depends on that wage suppression to remain profitable. 

Which is to say the owners, in using non-local human capital, has distressed the local market's wages and for other businesses to compete, will follow suit. These suppressed wages keep capital costs low, consumer prices low and inflates profitability.

Thus, owners are incentivized to not report, to keep their businesses afloat and profitable.

7/20

Ah, but surely they will be caught at some point, right? What about federal taxes! The corporate filings! Surely these people have to register a SSN to stay long term?

Nope. These people don't have SSNs, so they can't be tracked through employment records & tax filings (they don't file, clearly). 

As established before, the feds are not auditing for this and, unless it's visible for the IRS (and it is very easy to hide in tax reporting), corporations & small businesses will not be caught. 

8/20

Ok - but what about HR for the businesses, they abide by the rules, yes?

Yes and no - I've seen many that input fake SSNs. Most don't care, so long as the legality is established on "paper." Even if it's found to be inauthentic, the most a business will receive is a nastygram from Social Security Services, but zero legal threats, rendering the statement useless.

9/20

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/29/707931619/social-security-administration-plans-to-revive-no-match-letters

But, the problem doesn't stop with legal documentation and wage suppression. 

Most of these people live in a pre-industrial quality of life - many people to a room, 12-16 hr work days (2-3 jobs).

They live at the bare minimum, lowering their costs to be able to send their wages back home, as a remittance.

Which is catastrophic for the United States economy for a simple reason.

10/20

Employers are paying migrants (non native born), which removes purchasing power from native born people. 
Then, the money, that would have gone to native to continue circulation in America, is sent out of the country to be consumed in another economy entirely.

11/20

This seems a bit ridiculous at face value - let's look at a practical example and do a bit of math. The most notorious offenders in the industry are hospitality & tourism, via "seasonal tourist towns."

Destin, Florida & surrounding Okaloosa County is a perfect example, and happens to be a county I did much work in.

12/20

Okaloosa County will receive 7.7 million visitors in 2024, based on past data, adjusted for inflation. Let's use a typical calculation for how many jobs (people) are needed to support the tourist economy.

Assuming 7.7 million tourists in 2024, each requiring service for one job per 100 visitors (standard job to visitor ratio), we estimate a need for 77,000 jobs. 

If one-third to one-half of the population supports tourism (assumption form tourism heavy economies), this implies a population need of 231,000 to 154,000, suggesting a range of 230,000 to 250,000 residents for sustainable support of tourism.

13/20

Okaloosa County reports a population of 220k people. Which, at face value, seems fitting for our analysis above, although a bit shy of the mark.

But, this is wildly incorrect. According to Okaloosa County data, only 5.43% of the population, or 11,500 people, are employed in tourism.  

14/20

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/okaloosa-county-fl

Assuming our elementary analysis is correct, this represents an overwhelming need of > 65,000 people to support the yearly tourist economy, for just Okaloosa County.

Where do the people come from for these jobs? You guessed it - H2B programs. Imported from all over the world. 

15/20

This isn't just Okaloosa County and Destin, FL. You can replay this analysis in whatever seasonal town you would like. 

Winterpark, CO
Snowshoe Mountain, WV
Hilton Head Island, SC
Big Sky, MT
Panama City Beach, FL
Et al.

All data ends up the same - the population employment numbers do not add up for what is needed for the economies, on paper, to function.

16/20

This is because, as we discussed earlier, businesses that have engaged in H2B employment are, long term, disincentivized to report these types of employees. And, since these individuals do not have SSNs, there's no way to assess them as taxed individuals (remember, they don't file taxes). So, they won't appear on county data docs, which gives us a good answer as to the discrepancy.

17/20

Now, our assessment only took a brief look at hospitality and tourism, but you could replicate this across any industry that employees a large hourly workforce and see why we have had an existential decay nationwide. 

The existential crisis of this matter is only because the program has been exponential in its mode:

66,000 every year since 1992 (most recent amended federal allotment) has allowed, at minimum, over 2 million foreigners to enter into the United States, many of which never, ever leave. 

This is likely downplaying the number by a wide margin, because it does not consider children (birthright citizenship jus soli - right of the soil) or family members that may have immigrated later (yes, their family members can come over, unemployed).

18/20

It is likely incalculable to know just how many foreign people have matriculated to the US since its inception in 1986. 

Given the fundamentals of the program, you can apply this to almost any county that has major deviations in what should be normal employment, and I think you will find your answer.

19/20

I work in corporate consulting; there are many wonderful people that see this problem our great nation faces. There are many others though, like @ChadCarleton, who want to "buy Americans" in a good deal.

It is the latter, whose vile, repulsive attitude of conducting business in America, that need to be eradicated. 
If we do not expose them, I fear that the national rot will continue.

20/20