Published: September 25, 2021
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Sep 23, 2021 - Weekly expiry, preceded by the FOMC meet and not to mention the gap up which then turned out to be a trending day Here’s how the strangles were converted into straddles & how the positions were managed! Time for a Thread 🧵

• Wednesday night (IST) there was an event, FOMC meet • Markets were jittery, as they say, when US sneezes the world catches cold • Both Dow & Nifty were weak • All eyes were fixed on the Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s take on interest rate and the pace of asset purchases

• So didn’t wanted to get caught on the wrong side, hence on Wednesday noon Shorted a strangle • ~700-800 points away from where the BNF was about to close i.e. 37k levels • 37800 CE @ 43 & 37700 CE @ 34 & 36200 PE 28 & 36300 PE at 34

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• On Wednesday 37K strike witnessed heavy CE & PE Open interest 2.5mn & 2mn of CE & PE writing respectively

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• On Wed night, the cat was out of the bag and Mr. Powell kept interest rates at zero & continued the current pace of asset purchases • Dow celebrated the news and on Thursday morning (weekly expiry) i.e. Sep 23, 2021 BNF opened with a gap up of ~300 points and opened at 37241

• PE legs were trading in single digits by then so squared them off • At the gap up open of 300 points, it was very clear that BNF will get support from short covering rally from 37k, 37100 & 37200 CE writers

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary
Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary
Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• Before the market started off these were my levels 37300-37400 immediate resistance followed by R1: 37600-37625 & R2: 37800

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• 37700 CE was slightly trading above my cost by then • Was observing only two things: 1.Price action 2.Change in open interest

• At the gap-up open of 300 points, it was very clear that there will be short covering rally from 37k, 37100 & 37200 CE writers, but then I thought it might face resistance at 37500

• At 10 am BNF made solid 4 back to back green candles (15min TF) and closed at 37600 by then 37500 PE writers > CE writers, so closed all the PE legs

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• At 10.15am, 37500 PE writers were overpowering CE writers it was imminent that BNF was going to witness more short covering

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• All this while, was rolling up PE’s till 37000, as I was expecting BNF may reverse from 37500 • At 10.20am BNF closed >36600 (on the charts) and by then 37600 PE writers > 37600 CE writers, hence concluded that 37500 could be a strong support for the day

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary
Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• So now that it was clear that 37500 would act like a support for the day, with 37600 PE also witnessing more PE writing • Closed 37k Pes and just shorted 37700 PE at 158 & 37800 CE at 223 • Basically converted 37700 & 37800 into straddle from strangle

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• Post doing these all adjustments, the Break even range was 37500-37900 • Since view on the support for the day was clear i.e. 37500 had to manage only if BNF crosses the upside breakeven

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• Post 12noon, BNF sustained >37700 in spot, so thereafter 37700CE writers too were taken to the laundry

Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary
Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary
Image in tweet by Nikita Poojary

• BNF took exact resistance at 37800 as indicated in the charts, and thus the strangle which was converted into straddle worked like a charm

• Since it was an expiry day, it was clear that need to put a fight only for just 6 hours, and the short covering rally usually never disappoints, this is how the positions were managed

Resources used in making this thread: 1. https://oipulse.com/ for the OI data 2. http://tradingview.com for charts

And that's how we roll🥳🥳🥳 https://x.com/AdityaTodmal/sta...

Hope you enjoyed reading this thread! 🧵 Will be posting more such curiosity-inducing threads 🤠

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