When you're a sea captain, you're responsible for a huge amount of capital - every voyage was essentially a fairly large funded startup. Investors do *not* entrust such money to someone prone to flights of fancy, mental instability, or unwillingness to listen to reason.

So with, essentially, a lifetime of successful startups and exits under his belt, and being recognized throughout the industry as a Maximally Competent Guy, Columbus goes to a *extremely* large investor (the Spanish monarchy), with a facially absurd pitch.

"You know, I've been reading all these old books and I'm pretty sure if you do the calculations just right, the world is about 1/2 the size everyone else thinks. I'm putting together a team to head out into the Atlantic and sail to Asia." Now, this should raise questions.

First, Columbus isn't a scholar, although he's read plenty. The odds that he's even interpreting this correctly are minimal, to say nothing of the underlying correctness. Immediately the court scholars point this out, and no one can really refute it.

Second, even if the world is that much smaller, the *public* sailing techniques of the day make it questionable whether he could actually sail to China. Certainly he wouldn't have enough supplies to turn around if his theory was incorrect.

Third, and this gives away the game - Columbus asks for near absurd terms. On top of the usual compensation for a successful, vastly profitable trading voyage, he wants to have a huge equity slice of anything he finds out there - basically making him partner in any ongoing trade.

Now if you're sailing to China, and you discover there's just a shorter path - why exactly is the guy who figures this out getting a huge chunk of equity? Your competitors will immediately do the same thing, there's no benefit to figuring out something is easier for everyone.

So in sum, we have a situation where a Maximally Competent Guy asks for funding and a huge equity slice in an endeavor everyone says is impossible and will definitely end up with him dead, on completely spurious reasoning. What do we conclude?

*Columbus knows something everyone else does not*. He has an inside edge. The bullshit about the earth being smaller is just that - a cover story that's absurd enough that it's intended to be recognized as a cover story.

What Columbus *actually* knows, and implies but doesn't say to his investors, is two things. First, the "trade winds".

Most trade thus far has used coastal routes. It's dangerous to wander out into the open sea, for obvious reasons. But if you *do* wander out in the right place, you find an interesting phenomenon - a highway of wind, blowing you out, west and south. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...

Trade winds were a trade secret. Navigators were an artisanal group, and knowing the subtleties of wind and current was why they made the big bucks - getting it right vastly increased the odds of successful voyage and payday, and vice versa. You don't give away your edge!

This doesn't just let you get out to sea - it lets you come *back*. So Columbus knows, he can relatively (*very* relatively, this is still incredibly dangerous) safely go out further than anyone has gone, and make it back in one piece.

Secondly, Columbus has heard rumors - as Portuguese ships attempt to slingshot past South Africa and make it to India, it is extremely likely that some of them may have been blown off course on their way, close enough to see some outlying Brazilian land or islands.

It makes sense why those particular ships may not have pursued land - the winds are blowing you the opposite way, you know you have a huge payday set up if you stick to the plan, and you have no idea if there's anything worthwhile in that shadow just over the horizon.

(Incidentally we know a similar pattern happened with the Vikings 500 years prior, where at least one ship was blown off course to where they saw the coast of Vinland, but it took years for it to be followed up on)

But this is the sort of thing that generates rumors - even if your navigator is keeping his mouth shut, mostly, every junior seaman up in the rigging is unlikely to exercise the same discretion.

In sum, Columbus knows there *might be something over there*, and knows a plausible way to get there and back. But he doesn't know what it is, and if he starts talking up his reasoning, likely some Portuguese guy or a different team altogether is going to beat him to market

He signals his insider information to investors by his ridiculous death-wish reasoning and equity demands - he's willing to put his life on the line for a bet he won't even reveal, but they know he has skin in the game.

So they trust him, based on his reputation and willingness to put his own stake all-in. And fortunately for everyone not an Indian, the bet pays off.

Columbus didn't "die thinking he landed in China hur hur." He was still trying to figure out monetization, and still trying to keep his information edge (and his equity stake) intact.

These were reasonable concerns, considering that immediately after he died, his investors tried to dilute his heirs out of their inherited equity stake.

It turns out that the best founder who can prove the concept isn't necessarily the best at pivoting to monetization and real returns. Columbus was by all accounts a pretty shitty imperialist - burning resources on failed settlements, unsustainable slavery, and nonexistent gold.

Nevertheless you MUST SUBMIT that he was a world-historically great navigator, explorer, and visionary founder. Attempts to drag him down by implying his supposed ignorance or brutality overshadow this are motivated by people who hate greatness in itself.

@NewAtlantisSun I still think he got ahold of something that indicated Lief Ericsson's voyage to the New World. He made a gross error in his estimate of the size of the Earth that just happened to put the east coast of Asia in one of only two places around the world where there's an east coast.

@PonsSublicius His logic was textbook handwavy motivated reasoning. It wasn't an "error", it was an excuse

@NewAtlantisSun @MogTheUrbanite Columbus was pretty much following the excepted geographic doctrine of the time. Europeans knew more or less how big the Earth was. They didn’t know how big Asia was.

@NewAtlantisSun Interesting theory, but it doesn't seem remotely correct to me. Columbus insisted to his deathbed that he had arrived in the Indies. He became a joke—especially at the Portuguese court, where he had tried to seek funding for his expedition, before Castile.

@NewAtlantisSun That's a really cool interpretation.

@NewAtlantisSun Excuse me a community college “it” said you were wrong….

@NewAtlantisSun You do know that Columbus was in the service of the king of Portugal for several years, married a Portuguese woman and lived in the island of Porto Santo, right?

@NewAtlantisSun Plausible theory.

@NewAtlantisSun I'm less concerned with whether he was an idiot, and more concerned with whether he was a moral monster. He was.

@NewAtlantisSun There is also a theory that he was actually Portuguese, this would further help the idea that he was aware of Portuguese secret findings.

@NewAtlantisSun @threadreaderapp unroll please

@NewAtlantisSun @shylockh Sancti Cristoforii Colombii, ora pro nobis