Published: March 14, 2023
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Results were obviously great. But people don't talk enough about how good the EV was for you. Probably my favorite example of picking off retail. The bet sounds so fair and simple. I analyzed it intuitively here, without Black Scholes or fancy math: https://x.com/chameleon_jeff/s...
@chameleon_jeff aren't you just saying P(X < E[X]) > .5 since it's long tailed
@_CryptoChimp Yeah it's surprising how people think pricing the binary option is the most intuitive explanation