2/ It is possible for a single xPub (extended public key) to generate 4,294,967,296 unique public addresses. To maximize user privacy, the default setting for 99% of wallets is to generate a new public address each time you receive funds.

3/ Most whales aren't going to hold all of their #BTC in a single addresses. They are going to have multiple addresses that have 1+ BTC belonging to them. So the total amount of wholecoiners is going to be much less than the 1 million number that's being thrown around.

4/Based on glassnode data, the rough estimate for total #Bitcoin users is 36.8 million. This estimate is based on known exchange addresses + UTXO consolidation. There's ~1.15 billion unique public addresses on the network. 1.15 billion / 36.8 million =~31.5 addresses per user.

5/ The median # of addresses per user is likely much higher than 31, when you consider there's likely many people who have only generated 1 or 2 addresses, bringing down the avg. But we’ll use the average because it’s the best we can do.

6/ To get the most accurate estimate for the total number of wholecoiners, we need to account for two factors: A) A single user controlling multiple addresses w/ 1+ #BTC B) A single user controlling multiple addresses < 1 BTC whose sum is >= 1 BTC.

7/ Dividing the number of addresses w/ 1+ #BTC by the estimated number of addresses per user accounts for A👆. 1,007,530 / 31.5 = 31,985 This accounts for wholecoiners that posses multiple addresses with 1 or more BTC.

8/ Based on ~31.5 estimated addresses per user, we can assume addresses with > .0317 BTC and less than 1 BTC as belonging to whole coiners. 1 / 31.5 = ~.0317 To reiterate, we assume the average user controls 31.5 addresses. So 31.5 addresses w/ .0317 = 1 #BTC

9/I don’t have access to data that specific, but fortunately, .0317 BTC is just under $1000. So we can use the # of addresses w/ >$1000 as a close approx. Then we subtract out the # of addresses w/ a full BTC that we’ve already accounted for. 7,408,819 - 1,007,530 = 6,401,289

10/ Then we can divide that by the 31.5 addresses per user. 6,401,289 / 31.5 = ~203,215. This is the estimated number of wholecoiners based on users controlling multiple addresses with less than 1 whole #BTC

11/ Lastly, we can sum our two numbers. 31,985 + 203,215 = 235,200 This seems to me a much more likely number of wholecoiners given the current status of #Bitcoin adoption and the difficulty for the average person to accumulate an entire coin at current prices.

12/ Of course, this is just an estimate and we can never know for sure. That’s part of what makes #Bitcoin so great. It’s transparent yet also private. Also, I have purposefully neglected BTC on exchanges because you don’t actually own BTC if you leave it on an exchange.

13/ To summarize, using on-chain data I estimate that roughly 235,200 people own the keys to at least 1 whole #BTC This is 0.002% of the global population. These people are the future elite class.

@MitchellHODL @BitcoinCarl_ I don't understand this train of thought. If I have 0.25 BTC across 4 addresses, I am a 'wholecoiner,' but all of those addresses are not accounted for in your calculation. Shouldn't the number of people owning 1 full BTC be much higher than 1M, rather than significantly less?

@thijsvhilst @BitcoinCarl_ They are accounted for in this calculation. https://x.com/mitchellhodl/sta...

@MitchellHODL A person can also own 1 BTC across multiple wallets (each wallet holding some BTC in multiple addresses).

@Orion3218 That’s literally the entire point of the thread. How about you read it before you comment.

@MitchellHODL I feel like this could have been just one tweet

@MitchellHODL Some hold multiple wallets that together make a while coin 🤔

@MitchellHODL This represents the distribution of addresses for the entire blockchain

@MitchellHODL Excellent analysis, if this doesn’t solidify the scarcity argument for pre-coiners, I don’t know what will. Any IOU Bitcoin, not in self custody, is a rugpull in progress. Future generations will tell stories of the times when you could own a full coin. Times are RARE indeed.

@MitchellHODL I too had 1 whole BTC just 1 month ago on my Atomic Wallet ! (with #XRP, #ETH…) Before the #atomicwallethack on the 3rd of june ☠️ Since complete silence from @atomicwallet on - how the hack happened? - how to compensate users who have been robbed? @Elliptic_Inv @xrpforensics

@MitchellHODL I thought bitcoin was a surveillance coin with zero privacy. You can’t just tell who owns what? 🤯

@MitchellHODL I’m a regular dude and I got multiple UTXOs >1 btc. I’d say there’s ~30k-50k unique whole coiners.

@MitchellHODL That's way too optimistic we are likely between 50k and 100k wholecoiners

@MitchellHODL Don’t agree with this math. The 31 average wallets per holder puts the “stash” of the 1+ btc at 31 BTC which even in todays depressed market is 10mn. There can’t possibly be a logical way to think that all address with 1+ btc actually hold 31 BTC. Though the average won’t be

@MitchellHODL It’s good to be a wholecoiner!

@MitchellHODL I highly doubt there will ever be more than 1,000,000 wholecoiners. Those who stacked this much are already in an elite group. Remember greed is only good when it comes to bitcoin adoption. Keep stacking psychos!

@MitchellHODL Less than 1 million, for sure… 🤔🧐😉

@MitchellHODL I love thinking about these things. Well done. 👏

@MitchellHODL Love some honest assessment of utxo and addresses. Next step, let's label all exchange related infrastructure addresses. And I do mean all, including all the fracture/mix/consolidate addresses.

@MitchellHODL @SatoshisJournal @SDWouters

@MitchellHODL I don't know why everyone discounts the number of people holding paper Bitcoin in their analysis. In Canada, I know many normies that got in during the 2019 bull run with +1BTC in ETF, closed fund and wealthsimple accounts because those products launched during the run.

@MitchellHODL @RajHodl Probably around 100k is my guess.

@MitchellHODL We’re so early

@MitchellHODL I think that's a good rough estimate. 200,000ish whole coiners.