If you liked this article, please take a read of my latest: https://x.com/pbeisel/status/1...
@pbeisel Well that’s a fantastic exposition of FSD, thank you Phil for taking the time and trouble to put it together for us mere mortals. I think that I will re-read it multiple times. It seems like we have been waiting and watching FSD develop for many years, but now it’s finally here!
@MarkGoucher3 Thank you for the kind words. Yep, technology revolutions start slowly and then happen all at once. It takes more time than people think to get the pieces in place. And usually the initial excitement wanes, and then bam its slams us like a ton of bricks!
@pbeisel Exceptional Articulation, please can we ensure that ALL WS Auto analysts at least try to comprehend by reading this. Thanks phil . If you are a $TSLA Investor please broadcast this education .
@EvEvangelist Its extraordinary how little Wall Street knows and/or understands about what it happening.
@pbeisel @Tech_Vikin One of my big problems with FSD after 3 months is overriding some of its decisions without disengagement. For example, speed. Despite a variety of settings like manual offset, auto speed etc, the car often goes at a speed that is uncomfortable or inappropriate for the situation
@LesCrane3 @Tech_Vikin I hear you! Some of this will just get fixed in future versions but I also believe Grok will be integrated so you can just voice commands at the car like "speed up", "let's not follow this truck".
@pbeisel Great read! Sounds like you think Tesla's FSD technology will evolve into a 'winner-take-all' or 'winner-take-most' scenario? Given the rapid advancements in autonomous driving across the industry, do you believe there will be room for multiple players (Waymo)?
@TheHumanoidLabs That's a great question. I think Tesla's advantage is that its a true ADAS solution-- go anywhere anytime. Waymo etc. are more restricted and at a much higher cost per vehicle. I think Tesla will end up as the "Uber" of the biz and the rest will be the "Lyft's". Winner-take-most
@pbeisel Really well written article. Thanks for taking the time to share it.
@johnfaires My pleasure, thank you for the kind words.
@pbeisel Great article! I was actually wondering if there were two models (one perception and one planning). I can see the perception is very strong even when there are no lane markers on roads! I wish the planning would use more location specific data.. maybe it does?
@archRegression Nick pretty sure there are two models, but I note it could be one now. I think logically it can be thought of as 2 for sure. I think more "like" scenarios will come!
@pbeisel Thanks for spending the time to write this.
@TeslaPrice Thank you for reading!
@pbeisel I’ve enjoyed seeing the progress FSD has made over the years. I hope it keeps at the current rate. People often say it’s easy to progress to 95%, the last 5% may take 95% of the time.
@duquette_craig Ah that's one way of looking at it! The tail is indeed long, but if you chip away at the big one the rest become smaller by comparison.
@pbeisel Phil, Thank you for a very well written article. As a close follower of Tesla and FSD development, your essay was spot on. Unless there is an unforeseen hurdle, it seems that Tesla will be the first to establish a Robotaxi service at broad scale in the USA. While Waymo has had
@edcoppe Ed I agree with you completely. The moat is pretty wide. Spending $10B on something isn't done everyday. Only the superscalers can play at this level (Google with Waymo as an example, though I feel for the reasons you cite Waymo will drift deep into 2nd place).
@pbeisel Awesome information! Thanks so much! How long did it take you to work this up?
@FishboneX17 idk maybe 3 days of writing, but working it out in my head a bit longer!!
@FabGeorjon I haven't looked at their solutions closely. Chinese companies are good at the copy, but as I point out Tesla has a substantial moat. Never impressed by Mobileye however, Rivian used Mobileye but I believe has discarded it.
@pbeisel The Tesla team are having fun with FSD V12.. Am I wrong to assume the change is mood is Dojo Supercomputer integration?
@dojo229 Hard to say how much of Dojo is online (I certainly don't know). Dojo is good a hedge against Nvidia availability and power.