An example of me getting picked off by someone with better information. I thought borrow rates were spiking organically but it turns out an offering was coming.. https://x.com/kevinlmak/status...
And an old article I published where I had better information about a court date extension and picked off the options market makers (and the rest of the market). https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
@KevinLMak That’s cool. You should have them go through the simulation with their semester grades on the line. I bet their decisions would be different…
@JaredKubin Their in class trading results are 40% of their grade 😉. Keep in mind it’s an MBA class, you have to try pretty hard to fail it.
@KevinLMak Would you say that 90+% of fund managers understand this concept or are they more focused on an expected value calculation for a stock price/model?
@chasecashman 90% of fund managers are optimizing for not getting fired and growing AUM. The few good ones, are certainly thinking about what the market knows that they don’t know.
@KevinLMak There's some truth in what you are teaching, but I think of the market as competing narratives and armies. The bull narrative might be a stock that is worth $28, the bear narrative may be $22. In reality, traders who watch the stock frequently would be watching volume and the
@engineervirtue You forgot short ladder attacks.
@KevinLMak I'm sorry I don't understand the following. Why would trader B sell at 26.01 when his strategy is to sell above 28?
@misterxem Good catch, I flipped it by mistake. Trader A will be selling at $26.01 and trade B be buying $25.99.
@KevinLMak Black Scholes ? Wonder if Warren Buffett thinks along any of these lines ?
@minerstrategy Buffett spent his early days at the racetrack handicapping horse races. He certainly completely internalizes price discovery and expected value. As an investor with his size, he doesn’t really need to worry about others having better information than him. He can meet with
@KevinLMak All due respect, price discovery died a long time ago. Sorry.
@2020Upstream My arbs that continually trade to fair value beg to differ.
@KevinLMak Well written, thanks for sharing.
@KevinLMak Great write up on the dynamics at play with $ASTS. From the actions of more informed parties not selling a share, the CEO not taking a salary, regulatory wins, technology advantage, patents, and partners… and the substantial technical background and due diligence from the
@KevinLMak Kevin, Love the info on "Price Discovery and Trading". You are truly an educator. Since I am an $ASTS Fan, just wanted to add that the @AST_SpaceMob seems to have much more info than any analyst covering the company. I like the leg up this group has.
@KevinLMak Kevin I offered to teach basic economics at our local high school, as an elective. Other than selling a plumbing company, and owning a bunch of $ASTS, I'm really not qualified. Can you direct me to a few books, preferably geared towards trading? BTW, great post and I always
@KevinLMak well written. the simple model is quite useful to learn the basics. IMHO, the market is not just about 1st order expectations of others but it’s ad infinitives of exp(exp)… with stochastics.
@KevinLMak Adverse selection everywhere 😂 Thanks!
@KevinLMak Thanks for sharing Kevin very interesting.
@KevinLMak Thanks for the lesson! Need kook to make an endowment and have the class open for retail folks. It's like sitting at a poker table and not knowing who the fool is...
@KevinLMak Thanks for these lessons
@KevinLMak Great write up. Thanks
@KevinLMak Banger
@KevinLMak $PGY is a great example of price too! Insiders know that additional dilution is on the way, and sell their shares on the announcement of "good news," meanwhile the actual "information" is made public a month later!
@KevinLMak Great to throw in the links to what you actually use to teach. Great info here
@KevinLMak Nice article, love it
@KevinLMak Great thread, thanks! @memdotai mem it
@KevinLMak Great post!