Syria 2024

Countdown to Assad ‘s fall started on Oct 7, 2023 when Hamas / Sinwar initiated an attack on what had become known as the Nova music festival massacre inside #Israel While the world was shocked by the event, few at the time thought that this massacre would have anything to do with Assad or his downfall nearly a year later

If Hamas started the chain link that would lead to Assad ‘s fall, it was the decision of Hezbollah / Nasrallah to open a front on #Israel ‘s northern border from #Lebanon that would turn out to be a decisive mistake for what has been known as the resistance axis

Sep 27, 2024 was both symbolic & real turning point when #Israel decided to kill Nasrallah as one of the key figures in the resistance axis. That day Assad lost what has arguably been his number one ally, confidant, financial & manpower resource. Assad now had less than 3m left

Why was Hezbollah / Nasrallah so important to Assad? As #Syria ‘s war started, Assad soon found out that his army was not committed enough to die for him. As economic sanctions started to bite, his ability to pay his soldiers waned further. Standards of living were in free fall for all citizens including those in the army

Was #Syria ruled by Alawis or the Assad family that happened to be Alawi ? The answer to this question is critical but has received little attention. Based on numerous interviews and conversations, the answer seems to be resoundingly clear - Syria was ruled by the Assad family and Alawis were both used by the family while the community of course also benefited from this two way relationship

It is true that Alawis made most of the key intelligence agencies as well as the senior figures in the Army. This is not to say that Sunnis like Ali Mamlouk did not hold key positions. Important thing to remember however is that Alawis did not really put up a fight when the final chapter arrived But, why?

If Assad was good at anything, it was to convince the minorities as well many capitals that without him and his family rule, all minorities (and even secular citizens) were doomed Alawis in particular fully believed this narrative and hence threw their fate to Assad ‘s will

As the war broke out and economic sanctions followed, paying the regular army became increasingly harder. Fighting and dying for Assad was getting more difficult to rally as financial resources dwindled. As that unfolded , Assad realized he needs to garner support from groups whose commitment didn’t need money but ideology, religion & sectarian identity fervor Enter Shia and Hezbollah’s fear of Sunni Islam as Assad’s tool to exploit

The more Asasd relied on Shia militia groups and #Iran , the more he alienated his own Sunni population as well as regional capitals. Alawis themselves were not happy with Shia groups or Iran expanding their footprint or influence in #Syria . those Alawis however were made to believe that these groups were the only allies that shared their far of Sunnis, a narrative that Assad was happy to exploit

Assad hates being tied to one patron. Improving ties with #UAE was part of that strategy of not being reliant on either just #Iran or #Russia Improving ties with Abu Dhabi convinced Assad that should things deteriorate he now access to a rich , powerful and resourceful capital that can come to his defense should things take a turn for the worse

As #Israel pummeled Hezbollah & made the decision to destroy the Iranian influence in the region, one capital read the chess board perfectly Enter the role of #Turkey led by both Erdogan and Hakan Fidan who would both soon emerge as the strongest players in the new unfolding redesign of the region as #Iran retreats

The first genius move of Ankara was to publicly reach out to Assad to make him believe that the Turkish leadership is keen to hold talk with him about teaming up against the Kurds. This outreach was made while knowing fully well that Assad was likely to reject it. The purpose was to show Assad that Ankara was in a conciliatory rather than offensive posture towards Damascus. This played a role In making Assad ignore or downplay the constant intel about impending attacks by the opposition in Idlib

The assault on #Aleppo started on Dec 2 while Assad was attending his son’s graduation in Moscow. #Russia knew this and had likely passed this information to Ankara. #Turkey for its part had the Syrian armed groups led by HTS ready to pounce on the day Assad is out of the country. #Aleppo was to become their first target The outcome was both devastating and shocking. The armed groups literally walked through #Syria ‘s second largest city with little of any resistance. Why was it so easy ?

Salaries of the Syrian army officer class was barely US$ 30 a month. Conscripts were making US$10. Senior officers were letting their subordinates stay home to collect their salaries to make ends meet. The army was hollowed on the inside and precious few were left to fight

If the Syrian Army was hollowed on the inside, Hezbollah fighters stationed in #Aleppo were distracted and busy helping the party defend itself against #Israel in #Lebanon Iranian and Iraqi militias too had retreated back since their peak presence and support back in 2017 By the time, the attack of Dec 2 ensued, the city had hardly any manpower to defend it. Recall that Assad himself was away while he had been convinced that Ankara was keen on holding talks with him. Little that he knew that this was all Part of the plan to let his guard down and totally misjudge #Turkey ‘s intention

As #Aleppo was falling to the opposition, Assad held talks with Putin pleading for help. Given the poor performance of the Syrian Army in Aleppo , Putin was in no mood to commit his men while the war in #Ukraine was still raging. Assad quickly flew back to Damascus and soon met with #Iran ‘s foreign minister in Damascus. What he heard then was not too dissimilar to what he had just heard in Moscow

Remember that the assault on #Aleppo happened with Assad in Moscow. Was Turkey informed by the Russians ahead of time? Also, while the attack on Aleppo happened in daylight, the advance on Hama and Homs took place at night. The Syrian Air Force had no capability to strike at night but the Russians did. Was Turkey also assured those Russian attacks won’t take place? Signs of Turkish / Russian coordination can’t be ignored here

As the armed groups reached Hama at night without any Russian Air Force response, the Syrian army was disintegrating. Many thought, surely the army will hold in Damascus. Assad ‘s generals in the meantime were led to believe that the President will pull out a last rabbit out his hat through perhaps his relationship with Abu Dhabi. Surely, he must be working on a plan given his silence as the march Damascus inched closer As it turned out, they were dead wrong as Assad’s silence was only due to the fact that he was already at the Russian air base in Lattakia waiting for Putin’s final nod to flee the country for good

It’s telling that those who accompanied Assad on that last flight of #Syria were his two financial advisors and confidants (Yassar Ibrahim and Mansour Azzam). Living the next chapter of his life in #Russia is likely to demand lots of funds to satisfy his new host and his own lifestyle. Assad has spent years building a rather significant asset stash outside the country. He will now have to dip into this nest egg to help sustain the next chapter of his remaining life

What is the likely future of #Syria post Assad ? How will the new rulers of Damascus fare and govern? What are the prospects of the minorities? Should one be optimistic or fearful? Every Syrian is asking those questions. While the answers are impossible to know with any certainty, it’s important to emphasize that most of the answers will depend on what Ankara does and want. #Turkey now is the de facto power broker and Erdogan / Fidan are effectively in charge with if course Ahmad Al Sharaa as their hand picked leader on the ground

That #Turkey won big in #Syria also means that #UAE lost. As #Iran retreats from the Mediterranean, the ascendency of the Sunnis needed new leadership. Abu Dhabi / Saudi wanted that role with their own new version of Islam. Turkey (and Qatar) see that leadership from different lenses, one that can deliver economic prosperity but through political Islam (Muslim Brotherhood light ideology). Syrians themselves are now the next experiment and Ankara has every incentive to make this work. This is the only way millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey will return home

The speed and relative success of this dazzling change in Damascus owes itself to the fact that the armed groups did have one leader in Ahamd al Sharaa. He is from Damascus (grew up near Al shafi’i mosque ) and hence has a better sense of how urban citizens of the country live. This is in contrast to many of his associates who have a more radical view of the way #Syria ought to be governed. Time will tell if he can keep them in check. This is not to say that Al Sharaa himself is not an Islamist. There is no question that #Syria now will pivot way more religious and pious

Most of the info on this thread has come from countless insiders who have stepped forward and shared their personal stories of what happened during the remarkable week between Dec 2-8 The thread is already too long and many other interesting details will have to wait for another time

Can’t finish without mentioning the absolutely sickening and revolting images and stories coming out of #Syria ‘s prisons Most Syrians have been traumatized by seeing the industrial scale of those atrocities Yes, many have long known that the regime dealt brutally with dissent but what we have seen over the past week has been shocking. Assad and everyone who participated in those acts of evil must be held accountable to make sure this doesn’t happen again Putin, are you watching, reading and ignoring ?