ArisGritzalis's Twitter Thread

@AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @C1_dF9432 @defiantclient Along with market wide sell offs, could easily be new investors that jumped in at $27-36 taking advantage of a little tax loss harvesting before the year ends.

@InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @defiantclient I think we're beyond tax losses. After 2 breakouts were snuffed out by one event or another, when it comes to $ASTS, the market is taking a show me attitude and requires an event of substance in scale with the $VZ deal. The @FCC has dragged so much that it may no longer do it.

@C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @defiantclient @FCC This is a fair assessment. At some point months of FCC delays while simultaneously playing up the "great relationship" should inspire legitimate questions as to why they can't get approval to test Block 1.

@C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @defiantclient @FCC They didn't get the main STAs, just Vodafone testing. While a positive, it's not the Verizon/ATT testing. Those STAs were just filed. Vodafone commercial service is much further away.

@defiantclient @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC I didn't say Vodafone wasn't a large opportunity. If you can hit 20 birds in 2025, then maybe a chance for full continuous in 2026. I still think they may delay the first launch of B2, though. I would expect a PR when the first Block 2 is finished.

@philliplyle @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC There is no evidence of either delay nor acceleration. PR and communications is not something that @ASTS excels at. There's no historical evidence of advance notices from them for either good or bad news. Many times we learn things from casual conversations by Abel or Scott.

@C1_dF9432 @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC Testing was expected to begin in 2024 per the last EC. Outside of a theory that special government testing is happening outside of the purvue of the FCC - it didn't happen. That's a delay.

@philliplyle @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC They provided an expected target date to begin testing when they filed with the @FCC as required. The @FCC taking longer it's a forced out of the company's control delay. It's not the same as if the equipment didn't work delay.

@C1_dF9432 @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @ASTS_Investors @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC The company could have filed the STAs earlier instead of November. However, I am not pointing the finger - simply sharing my theory that delays in testing could certainly delay block 2. It's a question that should be addressed in February on the next EC if not before then.

@philliplyle @C1_dF9432 @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC Why would a delay in testing effect Block 2? I'm not saying Block 2 won't get delayed but what is the correlation between the two?

@ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @defiantclient @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC AST is developing a larger version of block 1, putting together 20m worth of hardware. They haven't been able to start testing service with it until now. What if adjustments need to be made? Yes, some of it is software, but launching a new Gen before testing is risky IMO.

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC I think that's a big assumption, but that's why these are guesses. If I was making a Gen 3 satellite I'd want to make sure Gen 2 worked, especially given the amount of money involved. We will see.

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC The risk is less for SpaceX, though, when they are launching hundreds over time at a fraction of the cost. So it's apples to oranges. AST has to get these right as they have fewer, more expensive satellites. Easier for SpaceX to quickly adjust.

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC I still expect a waiver to be granted this summer when more real world data is shared. I am less familiar with the design changes, but they say that data will be available by 2H/2025. Also, Patents mean nothing until enforced IMO. Haven't seen any signs they are infringing.

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC Then they will redesign and work around it. V3 is already much larger. They have until 2026-2027 to figure it out, right? Meanwhile will collect data from tens of millions of real world devices over the next year.

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC The "draft" in 2023 did not have the language. They were expecting per-band limits, which even Verizon and some of the other partners had also opined were appropriate (at the time, anyway - til their interests turned).

@defiantclient @ASTS_Investors @C1_dF9432 @InvestorGadgt @AGritzalis @asts @CatSE___ApeX___ @spacanpanman @kingtutcap @FCC Here is AT&T arguing that SpaceX needs a OOBE limit in Feb 2024, and that the appropriate level is 107. Of course, it came out at 120 a few months later, and then suddenly AT&T didn't want to go to even go to 107. Strange how that works. https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/docum...