BJ Cunningham

Early on it was pretty clear that neither team was willing to fully commit to pressing high. United often fell back into a 5-4-1, while Liverpool sat in their usual 4-2-4. The thing that Liverpool always tries to do is deny the ball from going into wide areas because that is where the 4-2-4 is most vulnerable.

Liverpool created a couple of massive chances once the match settled in. United’s press was getting picked apart because they had it all set up to force Liverpool to one side of the pitch. Below Diallo isn’t able to get to Alisson in time, which allows him to play a simple pass out wide to Robertson, who then has acres of space to run into.

The second big chance Liverpool created was beautifully worked. A direct ball gets played to Salah out wide in a 1 v 1, Curtis Jones makes a run across Maguire’s face drawing him out, MacAllister then makes a run into the space created, while Mainoo doesn’t track him. In the end it’s a great save by Onana, but it’s also one of the ways Liverpool were manipulating United’s defensive set up.

One of the aspects that was good about United in this match was their aggressiveness to make direct passes in behind Liverpool's defensive line. Here Dalot makes a run past Alexander-Arnold and leads to a point blank chance in front for Dallo. Manchester United were repeatedly trying to exploit Liverpool down their right hand flank.

Quick side note on some of Liverpool’s defensive issues lately, it’s by choice. As @Tactx pointed out a week ago, Salah is now essentially cherry picking out of possession so that when Liverpool wins the ball, he’s in an advanced position to exploit teams with a quick counter attacking opportunity. https://x.com/Tactx_/status/18...

The downside of this is Gravenberch has to cover a lot of ground out wide, which in this match left Dalot in a 1 v 1 far too often. Teams have been doing this a lot and it’s seen Liverpool matches be much more high scoring. Since November 9th, their matches are averaging 4.17 expected goals.

One positive for United that changed from their performance against Newcastle in the midweek was the center backs stepping out to mark the forwards when they dropped deep. This made it a lot easier to win the ball as opposed to allowing Liverpool to just receive the ball and pick out whatever pass they wanted.

@TACTX The first goal for Manchester United basically comes from nothing, outside of a brilliant pass from Bruno Fernandes. Liverpool gets caught with four guys trying to stop the ball, which frees Martinez for a shot and it’s 1-0 United.

Liverpool responded with a brilliant goal for Gakpo, but it’s the result of what they’ve been trying to do for most of the match. Because United was in a 5-4-1, it made it difficult for Liverpool to overload the wide areas. Here they got United out of position after a set piece and had a 6 v 4, which resulted in a ball behind to Gakpo and a brilliant individual effort to make it 1-1.

Salah scored a penalty off an unfortunate hand ball by De Ligt, but United responded once again down Liverpool's right flank. Alexander-Arnold stayed central, which forced Kontae into an uncomfortable position out wide. Garnacho doesn’t get closed down and plays a brilliant cutback cross to Diallo who beats Robertson across for the finish to make it 2-2.

Another side note. United basically didn’t try to build out of the back for a majority of the match and instead were playing a lot of direct balls, which ended up working in their favor more often than not. It’s not what Amorim wants, but it was required against Liverpool with how good their press has been recently. As you can see below, United turned it over high only one time for the entire match. (via @markstatsbot)

@TACTX Both teams had late chances to grab all three points. Van Djik almost put one in off a corner, while Harry Maguire missed a sitter at the end when the match was stretched.

In the end, Liverpool created the more dangerous chances, as you can see in the final expected goals tally below. However, I really didn’t think it was a bad performance from United. Amorim set his team up to deal with Liverpool well in wide areas, basically didn’t allow Liverpool to beat them with direct balls over the top, and were dangerous at times in counter attacking opportunities. (via @OptaAnalyst)

Bruno Fernandes was without a doubt the man of the match and his performance on Sunday was one of the best individual performances I have seen so far this Premier League season. It was clear Amorim wanted to attack Liverpool’s right flank with Salah/Alexander-Arnold being their weak point and they did it very well. (via @markstatsbot)

You can make a case that Liverpool deserved the three points based on the final expected goals, but after watching the match, a draw I think is right outcome. If you enjoyed this thread, I have more tactical, data, and betting content on my Substack if you'd like to subscribe https://unexpectedgoals.substa...