This is devastating: The Los Angeles wildfires have now burned ~38,000 acres of land, or ~2.5 TIMES the size of Manhattan, NY. Estimated damages now exceed $150 BILLION in the costliest wildfire in US history. This fire will impact the US economy for decades. (a thread)

Just over 24 hours ago, the WSJ said that damages would exceed $50 billion from these fires. Now, AccuWeather estimates damages will be THREE TIMES that, at $150 billion. Over 10,000 structures have been destroyed which is estimated to take 10+ years to rebuild.

To put this in perspective, the Camp Fire in Paradise, California, in 2018 was the previous costliest wildfire. In 2025 dollars, this fire caused $12.5 billion in damages. At $150 billion, the LA wildfires are set to be 12 TIMES more expensive than the previous record.

A total of $150 billion in damages exceeds the GDP of all but 58 countries in the world. This is also more than HALF of the GDP of Finland and one third of the GDP of Singapore. Keep in mind, the $150 billion number is still a preliminary estimate and it could rise further.

This stat is mind blowing: A whopping 69% of homeowners in Pacific Palisades lost their home owners insurance before the fire. Pacific Palisades led the list where about 1,600 policies were dropped by State Farm in July. Many insurance companies saw this from a mile away.

Still, insured damages are expected to top a massive $20 BILLION according to JP Morgan. And while many insurance companies exited the market, many others underestimated the risk. This is going to be one of the biggest tests for US home insurance companies in history.

And as insurance companies exited, homeowners became HIGHLY reliant on the California FAIR Plan. The FAIR Plan provides basic fire insurance coverage for high-risk properties when traditional insurance companies will not. Losses to California's FAIR plan are set to exceed $24 billion.

Reliance on the FAIR Plan skyrocketed in 2024, jumping 85% in Pacific Palisades. This compares to a 40% jump in all California ZIP codes. The state of California is now facing a massive financial burden that will take years to resolve.

A major part of the economic problem is the fires are burning some of California's most expensive areas. The Palisades fire is in an area with a ZIP Code that has an average home price of $3 million+. Same goes with the Eaton fire, both of which are major losses for insurers.

Just 24 hours ago, the total estimated damages were $52 billion. Now, estimates are rising to $150 billion, or just $50 billion less than Hurricane Katrina in 2005. By the time the fires are contained, it could top the most expensive natural disaster in US history.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims of these devastating fires. In 2023, the US faced 28 climate disasters, causing over $93 billion in damage. This single fire could double the entire 2023 total. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

CLARIFICATION: The comment on "climate disaster" is not declaring these fires as a climate disaster. Rather, it was more for the sake of comparison to show the magnitude of the damage.