Jeff Walton

Alright y'all $MSTR Q4 2024 Earnings release tomorrow "Analysts" estimate $0.06 Earnings Per Share Gain on average They're WAY wrong... Again... Below are my estimates for EPS based on two scenarios: Scenario 1. NO Adoption of FASB Fair Value Accounting: - Est. EPS (LOSS) of -$7.97 per share - Est. EPS (Loss) of -$6.95 per fully diluted share Scenario 2. Adoption of FASB FAIR Value Accounting: - Est. EPS GAIN of $31.68 per share - Est. EPS Gain of $27.63 per fully diluted share As an FYI data point, the $QQQ index has an average P/E ratio of 31.4...... Assumptions for scenario 1: 1. Software business has an organic $25M Net Income 2. -$1.98 Billion digital asset impairment charge (Note, this is going away at the latest in Q1 2025 with the implementation of FASB Fair Value accounting) Assumptions for scenario 2: 1. Software business has an organic $25M Net Income 2. $7.75 Billion NET mark to market GAIN for Bitcoin held and acquired throughout Q4 2024 Overall, $MSTR acquired 194,180 Bitcoin in Q4 2024 for $17.96B at an average cost of $92,532, nearly doubling their entire BTC stack in a single quarter Should $MSTR not elect to adopt FASB Fair Value Accounting for Q4 2024, I suspect 2024 ANNUAL EPS to be -$10.11 for the year. Additionally, the price of Bitcoin would need to close Q1 (3/31/25) at $98,798 OR HIGHER as of todays share count, in order to completely wipe out the last 4 quarters of negative earnings "summed together" (thus qualifying for S&P 500). Should $MSTR ELECT to adopt FASB Fair Value Accounting for Q4 2024 and the entire 2024 Fiscal Year, I estimate 2024 ANNUAL EPS to be ~ $47.90 PER SHARE, or $41.70 per fully diluted share. Based on the current trading price of $MSTR ($345 at time of writing), the trailing 12 month P/E ratio for $MSTR would be 7.2x or 8.2x fully diluted. Here are the P/E ratios of the Mag 7: (Avg: 59) $AAPL: 33x $MSFT: 33x $NVDA: 47x $AMZN: 52x $GOOG: 27x $META: 29x $TSLA: 192x Tomorrow will be another earnings call for the record books. An overview of SHATTERING capital raising records. This puppy is just getting going 🟩👆