Holdings

1. If this where we are gonna draw the line as the end of the cycle it feels a bit odd. Bitcoins about ~1.5x over previous high, ETH didn’t hit a new ath maybe just eeked one out with staking, sol recovered but also barely eeking out an ath on a couple wicks better with staking ofc

2. You could almost explain the entirety of the move as Saylor pushing btc slightly harder than everyone else and some things getting just back to 21 cycle highs with some help from ETFs

3. Inflows are weak ex btc complex which is a little siloed off with the tradfi bent now which has made non btc inflows almost nothing.

4. Speculative capital has been drawn to memes but the memes are playing a constant merry go round of relevancy and seem to have accelerated to have the half life of less than a day now. Also even in total memecoin spec cap less than what we saw probably for a single large alt like avax last cycle

5. Spec money seems to be largely missing and things have been dragged up kicking and screaming because they should have beta but there’s no real size behind it and definitely not enough to punch new highs

6. You’ve got some pockets of things like Hype and Trump that have been able to capture crypto native mindshare but it’s unclear if there’s inflows from outside crypto set into it and the capital seems largely recycling from the crypto universe

7. Basically if one part of crypto is moving up it’s at the expense of another currently the flows are net flat and just shuffling. And crypto is big now so this is enough to have a vibrant trading ecosystem but it’s diff than previous cycles

8. Now I don’t know why this is different this time around or if I’m just off on where we are in the cycle but my guess is the overhang of 2021 is still with us. Liquid basically doesn’t exist and therefore can’t materially drive flows or collect inflows and venture remains the big yardstick for alts

9. Venture unfortunately has just not had the exits it needs or really at all and the marks have not been in there favor for awhile. Obviously specific funds are having banner year but this is in aggregate of the market.

10. It’s also possible just spec venture flow has moved into AI and those incremental dollars are just more excited for that opportunity than the coins though I have no visibility there.

11. Or perhaps we just have too many coins and the market is finally throwing a fit

12. Either way this time has been different