matthew sigel, recovering CFA

In the spirit of full disclosure, intellectual honesty, posterity's judgment, and rigorous debate, I would like to share my strong belief: I have become personally convinced that Jack Dorsey – CEO of Square and founder of X – is Bitcoin’s founder Satoshi Nakamoto. This is my opinion, not that of VanEck. The evidence linking Jack to Satoshi is a combination of technical parallels, circumstantial links, patterns (including timing), uncanny coincidences, motive and ability. While not definitive, the breadth of these connections is compelling and worthy of further scrutiny. If true, addressing these questions sooner rather than later could prevent unnecessary uncertainty—especially while Bitcoin is valued at ~2 trillion, rather than, say, 10x higher. Some have argued that publicizing this suspicion harms Bitcoin or its community. I strongly disagree. Even if Jack does still hold 5.2% of Bitcoin supply, the protocol’s decentralized design ensures it remains beyond any one individual’s control. Transparency about this hypothesis could reduce unnecessary speculation and address market fears surrounding Satoshi’s 1.1M BTC, particularly concerns that these holdings could destabilize the market if suddenly liquidated. For instance, the theory that Satoshi is Paul Le Roux, who remains in prison but is eligible for release in 2032, has fueled worries about such scenarios. If Jack is indeed Satoshi, this is an opportunity for him to take steps to protect his safety, communicate succession and inheritance plans, and provide assurances that align with Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos. Clarity on these points might strengthen Bitcoin’s investment case by building long-term confidence in the system’s resilience. I hope this post attracts those more talented than I am who can analyze these patterns and strengthen, or refute, the argument. If Satoshi is meant to remain unknown, scrutiny will reveal that as well. I understand this view may provoke strong reactions, but I believe it’s a conversation worth having. Finally, I want to acknowledge the individual whose work most informed this case: Sean Murray (@Financeguy97), who has compiled substantial, compelling research in recent months. Thanks also to Evan Ratliff, Craig Wright, Chris Concannon, Adam Back, Nathan Frankovitz, and others for input over the years. For those curious, see the below slides for the body of evidence.