River
@River
1 million qubits can potentially crack a Bitcoin address. Microsoft says its new chip creates a path to get there. How long does Bitcoin have to become quantum-resistant? And what’s actually at risk? We break it down in this 🧵
Quantum computers (QCs) are notoriously difficult to operate. Historically, QCs could only run for a few microseconds before breaking down, with massive operational costs to keep temperatures low and reduce noise. That's not good enough to accomplish anything.
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 release has cracked these hurdles, making it more reliable to run QCs at stable states. This could bring us much closer to practical, large-scale quantum applications.
Microsoft will need to reach a QC with a million qubits to tackle most industrial-scale problems. The Majorana 1 chip is far from that scale now, but could reach the 1 million mark by 2027-2029, according to CEO Satya Nadella.
Is 1 million qubits enough to break bitcoin? When ran for several days to weeks, a 1-million qubit QC could potentially crack bitcoin addresses via a long-range attack. This thread explains how that would actually work https://x.com/River/status/188...
More realistically, we’d need a QC with 13-300 million qubits to carry out a long-range attack in 1-8 hours. If achieved, this would put 5.9 million BTC at immediate risk. Remember that the best QCs today have only 1,000 qubits.
Still, this breakthrough shortens the timeline to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant. Even if it's a decade away, addressing vulnerabilities early is crucial. Our River Learn article walks through what’s at stake, and what the potential pathways ahead are: https://river.com/learn/will-q...