Parker Ross
@Econ_Parker
Despite the political distortions I noted earlier in the UMICH survey, it's rather remarkable how much income growth expectations have plunged since early 2024 (lowest since GFC), while job loss probability has surged to a level only surpassed briefly during the pandemic & GFC...
The NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is typically less distorted by politics, but even there, we've seen a notable step up in expectations for higher unemployment over the coming year, albeit not as high as suggested by UMICH
Interestingly, most of that rising job anxiety appears to be coming from moderate- and higher-income households, as lower-income households see lower odds of losing a job now than any time since peak labor market tightness...
