Andy Constan
@dampedspring
On December 7th I wrote my "2025 outlook". It was not a bunch of silly targets for the SPX year end 2025 level or bond levels. It mostly said "enjoy your holidays and just own diversified beta and ignore all the other forecasts". But it did outline principles to be bull or bear
If you had just chilled in beta you would have a small loss vs cash. On the other hand if you had read most forecasters you would have been bullish equities and overweight expecting 10-20% returns. So far that has gone poorly. With hardly an uptick.
But that's not the point. While I indicated and reiterated throughout January that I was bearish and expected a slowdown to hit equities. Today the same principles hold. No one knows the future and diversified beta is the way.
In the article these were the big takeaways for those trying (not recommended) to time markets
All these principles still remain but prices have begun to respond to my expectations and those are now fairly consensus. Here is the original substack and read on for my market view today https://open.substack.com/pub/...
I'm pretty neutral today and am a better short seller of US equities, European and Japanese bonds, and gold on rallies. I'm a buyer of ROW stocks, US bonds, EURUSD, JPYUSD, energy, and even BTC particularly vs a gold short.