Kamil Galeev
@kamilkazani
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
An idealistic reformer may think people will be grateful for easing their lot. In reality, however, they are far more likely to tear him into pieces. Regimes overthrown by the revolutions are almost always better than their predecessors.
A wise, far-sighted ruler knows better than to relieve the lot of commonfolk. Or, if he does, he understands he is playing with fire. Once you start, it will be very difficult to stop. People get excited, their expectations rise faster than whatever is the pace of improvement
More importantly. Once a clear turn for the better has taken place, any forms of oppression (including the ones they used to bear in silence earlier) will seem as absolutely unbearable. Let me show this on one specific example Stalin’s concentration camps https://kamilkazani.substack.c...