
phed
@PhedEU
i used AI to analyze how the YouTube algorithm works.. and here's why clicks don't matter — but watch time does👇🧵
1. YouTube doesn’t optimize for CTR anymore click-through rate (CTR) only tells YouTube you were curious but curiosity ≠ satisfaction people click for drama.. but if they bounce in 10 seconds, the algorithm punishes that video
2. Watch time = satisfaction signal YouTube figured out that what matters isn’t the click - it’s the follow-through if you watch 9 minutes of a 10-minute video? ✅ that’s quality if you bounce after 12 seconds? ❌ weak signal
3. The algorithm predicts expected watch time per impression they rewrote the model to estimate how long you’ll watch before you click 📈 not: “will they click?” but: “if they click… how long will they stay?” watch time is the new currency of the homepage
4. YouTube’s ranking system uses a modified logistic regression here’s how it works: positive examples = videos you clicked and watched → weighted by how long you watched negative examples = videos shown but ignored → fixed penalty longer watch time = stronger positive weight during training.
5. This kills clickbait clickbait worked when CTR ruled now? 🚫 misleading thumbnails 🚫 overpromises 🚫 bait-and-switch intros the model learns fast: if viewers drop early, your video won’t get pushed
6. Homepage ranking is driven by watch time when YouTube decides what to show you.. it looks at: your past watch durations what similar users watched for a long time expected watch time per impression CTR still matters, but watch time carries way more weight
7. Even likes and comments aren’t as powerful YouTube collects all engagement signals, but none are as consistently predictive as watch time why? because people like and comment for all kinds of reasons but staying for 10 minutes? that’s hard to fake
8. how creators can win: hook strong in the first 15 seconds keep cutting dead weight reward attention at every minute build “binge-able” structure across your videos don’t chase the click earn the watch
tl;dr: CTR tells YouTube your title was good Watch time tells YouTube your video was good if you want reach, optimize for what happens after the click - not before
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