What happens when Tesla Robotaxi goes live? Tesla’s Robotaxi launch, set for June in Austin, Texas, is generating buzz. Initially, Tesla may deploy safety drivers to monitor operations, but the transition to fully unsupervised Robotaxi service will soon follow. So, what could unfold in the months and quarters after this milestone? I've identified four possible effects: 1) Halo Effect - Seeing Tesla Robotaxis autonomously shuttling passengers will spark excitement, driving demand for Tesla vehicles. "I want me one of 'em self-driving machines so I can sleep while I go to work." 2) Add-On Effect - Current Tesla owners who haven’t opted for Full Self-Driving (FSD) may be inspired to purchase or subscribe to it, eager to tap into the autonomous driving experience showcased by Robotaxi. "Honey, you're right - I am a terrible driver, it's time to get FSD!" 3) Opportunity Effect - Entrepreneurs and companies will see Robotaxi as a business opportunity, ordering Cybercabs or other Tesla models to build their own fleets. Meanwhile, ride-hail drivers may ditch platforms like Uber, investing in Teslas to generate passive income through autonomous rides. "Make money while I go to the beach - heck yeah - I'm buying two!" 4) Value Effect - The used Tesla market will shift. Vehicles equipped with purchased FSD and AI4 hardware could see their value rise. Older models, if upgradeable to AI4 or AI5 with compatible camera suites, may also appreciate. "I'm gonna go knock on Dan's door and see if he will sell me his used Tesla - hopefully he doesn't realize just how valuable it is." Now, let's look at some potential profit numbers for the first three effects (I've previously examined the 4th effect - see post below): The table above shows the impact of a 10% increase across all three effects (10% higher demand for Tesla vehicles & FSD - broken out by geographic regions). In this analysis I assumed that 1/3 purchase FSD and 2/3 subscribe. USA - In the USA there are currently about 3 million Tesla vehicles. If Robotaxi creates 10% more demand in each of the three effects, then Tesla would earn another $7.5 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $750 million in gross profit. China - In China there are currently about 2.4 million Tesla vehicles. If Robotaxi creates 10% more demand in each of the three effects, then Tesla would earn another $6 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $600 million in gross profit. Europe - In Europe there are currently about 1.5 million Tesla vehicles. The same analysis shows that Tesla would earn another $3.7 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $370 million in gross profit. Total World - If we extend the analysis to the entire world, it shows that Tesla would earn another $19 billion in gross profit. Or alternatively, for every 1% incremental demand, that's about $1.9 billion in gross profit. Here's the same numbers displayed in a chart... I'm not suggesting that all three of these effects happen immediately or even at the same time, but hopefully you can get a sense of the potential impact of each one. Also, the fact that many people would choose to subscribe to FSD makes these numbers a bit messy - as we're comparing apples (one-time revenues) and oranges (recurring revenues). To simplify the analysis we can assume that all FSD is purchased -- here's how the numbers look... Every 1% incremental demand, that's about an $1.0 billion increase in gross profit in the USA and $2.6 billion worldwide.