As an historian, I hate the idea of rushing my conclusions into print. But, as an activist, I know how short the public attention span is. Alas "the weapons of mass distraction" will soon make sure Bandar Abbas is forgotten by all but the Iranian people. #BandarAbbasWho 2/

I felt confident jumping into the Bandar Abbas quagmire b/c I had spent nearly five years studying 2020 Beirut blast & it was clear w/first Bandar Abbas coverage that the perps & their hasbara allies wanted you to think Bandar Abbas was another Beirut 3/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

From my first post within hours of 2020 Beirut blast thru thousands of subsequent posts detailing Israel's modus operandi, I learned enough to go w/my gut on what I see as another clear example of Israeli nuclear terroism/extortion in Bandar Abbas 4/ https://drbairdonline.com/i-do...

As w/Beirut blast, the evidence that brought home to me most clearly that Israel had nuked Bandar Abbas was the CRATER. When I'd read MSM reports the Beirut crater was 43 m deep - as deep as a 13-story bldg! - I immediately launched into this thread just 5 days after the blast 5/

In this Aug 2020, using just a declassified (I assumed back then mistakenly declassified) govt diagram and a bit of algebra, I was able to PROVE that it would have taken a minimum 5 kt deeply buried nuke to blast a 43-m deep crater 6/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

For the 1st anniversary of the 2020 Beirut blast, I posted a full critique why those 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate supposedly sitting on a warehouse floor would never even have detonated let along blast any kind of crater. 7/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

The day after Bandar Abbas blast, we saw some eerie CGI-like footage of what appeared to be a very large CRATER. Here we go! I immediately started thread to gather & post evidence. If you're impatient to see where THIS thread is going, have a look there 8/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

Based on this eerie footage, Euronews & AP published articles mentioning vaguely "a crater that appeared meters deep". Google AI took this to mean "appears to be several meters deep." NY Daily News went so far as to proclaim "a MASSIVE CRATER"! 9/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

On Day 3, we finally saw the footage I had been hoping for! Video of the Bandar Abbas crater with PEOPLE standing both at the bottom and at the top of the crater to give some sense of the crater's DEPTH. 10/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

With the help of #kapwing I created English captions with translation confirmed by @4rzh4ng & @sheekooleekoo The commentator says (in Farsi) "this is exactly the place where the explosion occurred, creating a crater approximately 30 to 40 meters deep and 200 meters wide." 11/

Unfortunately, while the video was great, the commentator's measurements of 30-40 m for depth & 200 m for width were absurd. In addition I was informed the account that first posted the video was not a credible source. 12/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

Whether the commentator was part of an op to inflate the size of the crater for whatever reason, the video still looked good enough to be able to at least estimate the apparent crater depth & I came up with an apparent crater depth of ~37 ft (~11.3 m) 13/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

Assuming crater depth of 37 ft, I can use the same Figure 4.3 (good for desert alluvium & similar media) I used in 2020 to calculate the MINIMUM explosive yield necessary to blast the Bandar Abbas crater (corresponding to curve peak) & I come up with 47 tons TNT equivalent. 14/

In case you have no idea how big 47 tons TNT is, here's 44 tons TNT relative to a 6 ft man! Now imagine having to BURY that much TNT so that the center of mass is 45 feet BELOW the surface! That's what you would have to do to blast a 37-ft deep crater with only 47 tons of TNT.

What about aboveground explosives? You can find a detailed list of crater data for conventional & (declassified) nuclear explosions in US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station report "Cratering by Explosions: A Compendium and an Analysis" (1974) 16/ https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs...

One interesting correlation found in Cratering by Explosions is that hemispherical charges of TNT on a sandy silty clay surface could not blast more than ~20-ft deep crater NO MATTER HOW MUCH TNT they stacked up, including 1964 Snowball test w/500 tons TNT. 17/

So based on that crater depth alone, we can state that - if the Bandar Abbas explosion blasted the crater in the video - Bandar Abbas was NUKED! As to the ACTUAL explosive yield of the nuke, we need more than just depth. We need to know the apparent crater radius (Ra). 18/

Re crater diameter reports using satellite imagery started coming on Day 2 w/AP's Jon Gambrell noting in this image "what appeared to be two craters" measuring some 50 m across. Indeed one can clearly see two overlapping craters, meaning two explosions 19/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

I observed that in the video we used to measure crater depth that you could just make out a ridge between two craters although you couldn't get a real sense of how wide or deep this 2nd crater is in comparison to the 1st crater. 20/

Other reported estimates of crater diameter followed but ranged wildly from 20 m to 50 m for EACH crater so I decided to make an estimate myself employing the method I described in the other thread. 21/ https://x.com/drbairdonline/st...

I have to admit the task of measuring crater diameter was difficult b/c I found the craters oblong, a lot of overlap & unclear lip edges. I am certainly open to other estimates but the best I could come up with was a mean diameter 45.5 m for left crater & 42.9 m right crater 22/

My approach to explosive crater analysis is far more sophisticated today than back in 2020. I have basically tabulated ALL the test data - both nuclear & non-nuclear, aboveground & belowground - I have been able to discover and developed my own algorithms. 23/

Using this data base, I've discovered the best place to begin is by calculating the crater diameter-to-depth ratio (d/p) & then compare this to graphs of known d/p ratios for both high (HE) & nuclear (NE) explosive tests like this graph where d/p is y-axis & Scaled DOB x-axis 24/

To simplify thing, I'll just assume the left crater has depth 11. 3m, thus d/p = 45.5/11.3 = 4.0. Fortunately, for d/p = 4.0, there is an almost exact NE match, the 1962 Johnnie Boy (aka Johnie Boy) test, with d/p = 4.1. 25/

Johnnie Boy was the test of the W-30 TADM (tactical atomic demolition munition) with explosive yield of 500 tons TNT equiv detonated w/depth of burst (DOB) 2 feet below surface at NTS on 11 July 1962. The W-30 had a diameter 22 inches, length 46.5 inches & weight 435 lb. 26/

Johnnie Boy blasted a crater with apparent diameter 122 ft (37.2 m) and depth 30 ft (9.1 m) for d/p ratio 4.1, a crater only 80% of both diameter & depth of the left Bandar Abbas crater but with practically the same d/p ratio 27/

Since both the left Bandar Abbas & Johnnie Boy craters share approximately the same point (see circled point) on the graph, it is very easy to scale up from Johnnie Boy to find the necessary explosive yield & depth of burst necessary to blast the left Bandar Abbas crater. 28/

Blast effects not directly proportional to explosive yield, yield has to be scaled ala cube-root scaling (below) but experts have found 1/3.4 better fit, thus if two explosions have same pt then R1/W1^(1/3.4) = R2/W2^(1/3.4) where R is crater diameter/depth/DOB & W is yield 29/

Thus using known crater diameters for left Bandar Abbas & Johnnie Boy and known explosive yield for Johnnie Boy, we can calculate yield for left Bandar Abbas by solving W = ((45.5/37.2)*500^(1/3.4))^3.4 = 992 tons TNT equivalent 30/

Next w/known explosive yields for Bandar Abbas & Johnnie Boy & known DOB for Johnnie Boy, we can calculate DOB for Bandar Abbas DOB = 2 ft *(992/500)^(1/3.4) = 2.45 ft. Thus nuke of yield 992 tons TNT equiv @ DOB 2.45 ft would blast a crater of diameter 45.5 m & depth 11.3 m 31/