What's the endgame in Gaza?🧵 The IDF is drafting 10,000s as operation 'Gideon's Chariots'. It's a long time since Gaza posed a strategic threat, but it still exists as a festering sore, holding 24 hostages & 35 bodies. So what will the endgame be? Divide and conquer: (1/12)
In the six weeks since the end of the ceasefire, which lasted two months from January 19 to March 18, the IDF has been slowly reoccupying the buffer zone between Israel and Gaza, widening it and clearing it of buildings and shrubbery, and carefully reoccupying the Netzarim
There is little remaining of the pre-war Hamas force: Of around 30,000 trained fighters they had in October 2023, at least 21,000 are dead, at least 4,000 are in Israeli detention, and by battlefield logic alone, thousands more are wounded to the point of no longer being fit to
Hamas is also profoundly unpopular among the population of Gaza. As people survey the rubble and the desolation Hamas brought upon them for no discernible results, they can't believe that for the sake of keeping 20-24 living hostages in tunnels beneath them—to protect and keep
For every Gazan willing to march in protest against Hamas, risking their lives and facing arrest and torture, there are ten Gazans willing to share information in return for lucrative rewards and tickets to a new life in the West. This is no doubt why, when Israel ended the
It was clear for a long time, even before the ceasefire, that the IDF knew where nearly all the hostages were, sometimes precisely. It's even possible Hamas telegraphed their locations to the IDF to use a perimeter around the hostage sites as safe zones for their activities. The
The Gazans have had enough, and polls show most want to leave their ravaged coastal strip to start anew elsewhere. They are currently trickling out in a slow but largely unpublicized exodus via Ramon Airport and the Jordanian border. Some are genuine humanitarian cases, but
So what's next? The IDF is calling up large numbers of reservists, the largest mobilization in a year (and despite calls from the far-left for service refusal, the response rate has been 102%). With the northern front pacified and the West Bank situation under control, these
These reservists serve a double purpose: Pressuring Hamas into a hostage deal by signaling the current skeleton force that has been reshaping the battlefield will soon be reinforced with serious firepower, and also becoming that firepower to begin a final assault on Gaza. But
Rumors suggest Israel is planning a large refugee camp in this area, completely separating a large part of Gaza’s population from Hamas. The pre-war population of Gaza Strip was variously reported as 1.9–2.1 million but was certainly overstated. Multiple lines of evidence point
Thus, Hamas can be isolated in two ways, both pursued by the IDF: Firstly, removing its human shield population, leaving them vulnerable to conventional warfare. Hamas’ war strategy relies on these human shields—the thinner the population they hide among, the weaker they become.
Once isolated, Hamas leadership effectively loses control, ceasing to exist as an organization. Israel can make individual deals with division commanders, arranging safe passage to third countries. Those claiming Israel can’t occupy Gaza short- to medium-term ignore history.
In practice, this what I expect the endgame map to look like: The blue areas are either already cleared of all buildings: the Netzarim Corridor (marked with a red arrow in the sea), the northern buffer zone (which was largely rubbled over the winter), and the wedge between the
This nice fella calls Jews "genocial" while promising to genocide them. Interesting.
