Published: May 11, 2025
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Many are disappointed with the ceasefire, including me, but I think we need to zoom out (& zoom in via satellites) to really get a handle on what the latest Indo-Pak conflict means for ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐Ÿงต PS - Sunrise at 3:15 AM in Pakistan really captures what we should focus on.

Image in tweet by The Emissary

Strategically, India has gone far beyond what most would assume, especially in the shadow of cowardice that gripped India pre-Uri/Balakot. India unleashed its vaunted missile arsenal, wreaked havoc with drones, & resolutely defended the skies via its air force & especially its

Image in tweet by The Emissary

What should be certainly appreciated more is the sheer depth of Indian penetration in Pakistan while the reverse was rendered almost completely null by India's stellar air defense systems. Beyond the surreal videos of missile strikes, we are seeing satellite images & amateur

Image in tweet by The Emissary
Image in tweet by The Emissary

Even considering the pushing of the envelope that these strikes have done, more so we should also take note of the precision. A runway being struck at an exact location to block air operations. The gates of a NUCLEAR facility being struck as a warning. Hell, we've basically

There are concerns for India though. The fog of war still shrouds the status of aircrafts. Both Pakistan & India claim downed jets but we haven't received concrete evidence. Media reports & "undisclosed sources" don't carry the same weight after what we saw of the "Ghost of

Besides the actual military conflict where India successfully hit sites across many of Pakistan's major cities & military sites while Pakistan couldn't achieve the same, we should also examine the geopolitical element here. It's a fair idea that China goaded Pakistan into

Image in tweet by The Emissary

I think there is one factor that we should pay more special mind to here though - America. Going by the reaction to America's hand in the ceasefire, Indians are livid. There are reports of a nuclear threat by Pakistan or an off-ramp desired or just Trump really embracing this

Image in tweet by The Emissary

Domestically, I think Modi here is a victim of his own success - a constant theme of his term which I'll leave for another thread ๐Ÿ˜‰ Uri raised the bar. Balakot pushed the bar off the stand. But what happened between May 7-11th hit the bar out of the park. These type of visuals

Lastly, I'll add that this conflict goes beyond the military. India needs to use economic and indeed geologic warfare against Pakistan to unravel the state. It must rile up discontent in Balochi and Pashtun areas. Pin domestic woes on the greed of Punjab. Do not relent on

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