Apollo just released a 121 page deck on US real estate and housing outlook Some charts that caught my eye 🧵 1/ Median age of homebuyers is now 56 years old, compared to 31 years old in 1981
2/ 44% of consumers today say it is a bad time to buy a house because of high interest rates
3/ Mortgage rates today significantly higher than effective rate on existing mortgage debt
4/ A record 34% of Americans today say that they would rent if they were going to move
5/ US population demographics remain a tailwind to housing demand
6/ Home ownership rates have come down over the past two decade
7/ Delinquency rates for mortgages remain low
8/ Net migration trends were positive for states with lower state taxes, such as FL and TX More expensive cost of living states such as NY and CA saw net outflows
9/ New and existing home sales have both declined because of low inventory and higher rates
10/ Mortgage refinancing applications are near all time lows
11/ Sellers are receiving fewer offers per sold property
12/ Median age of first time home buyers now sit at 38 years old vs 30 years old in 2008
13/ Buyers over the last few years have very different mortgage rates, depending on when the home was actually purchased
14/ Monthly payment on a 30 year mortgage now sits at $2965, a record high
15/ Share of households looking to move over the next 12 months have declined
16/ 40% of US homes today currently dont have a mortgage on it
17/ Equity ownership value in real estate has slowly climbed to around $35T
18/ Home sales per real estate agent has declined significantly
19/ Housing supply for new residential listings remain low
20/ New single family construction has slowed down vs past few years
21/ New housing units authorized, but not yet started is at all time highs
22/ Average construction time for new homes have steadily increased, particularly for multi family
23/ We are currently running at a 2.4M deficit of homes, compared to new household formation
24/ Meanwhile rent inflation continues across both large and small cities
25/ Delinquencies on multi-family is steadily rising
Link for those interested in the full deck: https://www.apolloacademy.com/...

























