Published: May 18, 2025
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Apollo just released a 121 page deck on US real estate and housing outlook Some charts that caught my eye 🧵 1/ Median age of homebuyers is now 56 years old, compared to 31 years old in 1981

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2/ 44% of consumers today say it is a bad time to buy a house because of high interest rates

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3/ Mortgage rates today significantly higher than effective rate on existing mortgage debt

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4/ A record 34% of Americans today say that they would rent if they were going to move

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5/ US population demographics remain a tailwind to housing demand

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6/ Home ownership rates have come down over the past two decade

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7/ Delinquency rates for mortgages remain low

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8/ Net migration trends were positive for states with lower state taxes, such as FL and TX More expensive cost of living states such as NY and CA saw net outflows

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9/ New and existing home sales have both declined because of low inventory and higher rates

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10/ Mortgage refinancing applications are near all time lows

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11/ Sellers are receiving fewer offers per sold property

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12/ Median age of first time home buyers now sit at 38 years old vs 30 years old in 2008

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13/ Buyers over the last few years have very different mortgage rates, depending on when the home was actually purchased

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14/ Monthly payment on a 30 year mortgage now sits at $2965, a record high

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15/ Share of households looking to move over the next 12 months have declined

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16/ 40% of US homes today currently dont have a mortgage on it

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17/ Equity ownership value in real estate has slowly climbed to around $35T

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18/ Home sales per real estate agent has declined significantly

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19/ Housing supply for new residential listings remain low

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20/ New single family construction has slowed down vs past few years

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21/ New housing units authorized, but not yet started is at all time highs

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22/ Average construction time for new homes have steadily increased, particularly for multi family

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23/ We are currently running at a 2.4M deficit of homes, compared to new household formation

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24/ Meanwhile rent inflation continues across both large and small cities

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25/ Delinquencies on multi-family is steadily rising

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Link for those interested in the full deck: https://www.apolloacademy.com/...

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