Returning to my notes. The trip was illuminating, as it helped me to reconnect with people there and test some of my assumptions about the country, its society, the war, and the potential for negotiations. A thread with general and not scientific observations. 1/10
I have three immediate observations. 1: UA was barely mentioned in conversations about the war and West-RU relations. It felt like UA was seen either a tool or an obstacle to achieving RU FP goals. RU has a broader view of the conflict than how Europeans discuss it. 2/10
2: the mood was pessimistic yet confident. My interlocutors saw that the war offered no immediate benefits. However, nobody wants defeat, and people are confident that RU can endure whatever it takes ("burn our future for a few khutors" as one framed) to achieve victory. 3/10
3: Putin is seen as an unpredictable force of nature, a leader who is insulated from the public and the need to deliberate over his decisions. The only viable options are adaptation or leaving. Those who dislike him just choose to wait until he dies. Peak Putinism as it is 4/10
Joining the war is like running a start-up. Big risk, high reward. The gov offers health and life insurance, as well as ideological benefits. Many underprivileged men see it as an opportunity to earn money and do something really great in their generally miserable life. 5/10
A visible resurgence of the RU national identity and demise of European idealisation. Youngsters wear RU flag and symbols, RU cuisine restaurants full, domestic tourism booming and real income increased. Russians re-discovered non-European regional cultures and destination. 6/10
Yet there's no isolation from Western culture. One can still travel to the EU via Istanbul/Belgrade, and access banned services via alternative services, KZ/ARM parallel channels, or pirate it. All goods are available, from groceries to luxury. "We just take what works" 7/10
A strong sense of fear among intellectuals, though. Self-censorship is widespread and engagement with Western representatives without inst approval is discouraged. IMO, it is strongest among those who have deep ties to the country and no option to leave. 8/10
Gradually, expertise in EU/Western regions is dying. Researchers are under financial and administrative pressure. Meanwhile, prof ties with partners in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa are growing. There is a record number of foreign students every year. 9/10
That concludes this thread. I will write more about the findings from this trip, including an analytical report and potentially an academic paper. I hope it was insightful at least for some. Let me know if there is anything you would like me to elaborate on. 10/10