🧵1/ russia's summer offensive is underway. Putin is more confident than ever that russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. As 700,000 russian troops push across multiple fronts, and with Trump always "two weeks" away from a decision, Putin thinks he can win.
2/ In late June, Putin repeated his old claim: "Russians and Ukrainians are one people… All of Ukraine is ours." His strategy? Continue to expand the war, overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, and bet that the West gives up first.
3/ Russia's new offensive is already underway in Sumy, a northern region Ukraine had previously liberated. The Kremlin justifies it by calling for a "buffer zone" -code for taking more territory.
4/ The real goal is to stretch Ukrainian forces thin to increase pressure in Donetsk and elsewhere. russia is deploying its elite drone units to support these efforts, mostly on the Donetsk front.
5/ Despite this, Ukraine has held its ground, even pushing the russians back in Sumy. Reports say some russian troops surrendered voluntarily, preferring Ukrainian captivity over their own command’s “meat grinder.”
6/ But russia is adapting. In scenes straight out of Mad Max, they now use motorcycles for assault teams. Speed is their armor. Even if 4 out of 5 die, one might break through.
7/ Behind the front lines, russia is mass-producing Shahed drones, partnering with Iran, and importing key fiber-optic tech from China. Their drone tactics are evolving fast.
8/ Entire forest lines are now wired with fiber-optic FPV drones - able to hunt down snipers and anti-tank teams, and are constantly destroying resupply vehicles. Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of transport as these drones destroy pickups and trucks daily.
9/ Ukraine's answer? Kill the drone pilots. Under “Madyar,” Ukraine’s drone chief, units get more points for confirmed kills of russian drone operators. These points can be exchanged for new gear. According to the russians, It’s working effectively.
10/ The threat is global. China is training troops in Russia, while North Korea sends industrial workers and soldiers to support Moscow’s war machine. Meanwhile, russia talks openly about attacking NATO in the coming years.
11/ Still, russia has numerous problems that are growing. The economy is buckling under war costs. Recruitment depends on desperate volunteers and convicts. And battlefield morale is crumbling. One intercepted call even alleged cannibalism among russian troops.
12/ What should the West do? Put real economic pressure on russia. Strengthen Ukraine’s drone wall (invest $$$ into more UA production). Help scale Ukraine’s air defenses. And above all - understand that Putin isn’t stopping at Ukraine.
13/ Until Moscow faces real pressure, russia believes it holds the upper hand and will continue fighting even harder. With little to offer its people for the future, the Kremlin instead sells a vision of returning to the supposed glory days of the russian empire.
End of the thread 🧵 Source: https://nationalinterest.org/f...
Destroy russian recon drones, kill russian drone pilots, blind ground operations and let Ukraine’s drone wall do the rest.
russia doing what it knows best: meatgrinder assaults.
Give Ukraine more fighter jets and bombs
Meanwhile, the subject of Ukraine was sidelined at the NATO summit…