5 quick points on the so-called “new rare earth deal,” as I discussed with @BBC yesterday: 1. It’s not a new deal — simply the implementation of what was agreed in Geneva back in May. 2. China has already been setting up procedures to approve export licenses for rare earths.
3. The timing aligns with the U.S. easing its own restrictions on China — this is reciprocal, not unilateral. 4. It doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing: MOFCOM only said it would “examine and approve export applications of eligible controlled items in accordance with the law.” What
counts as “eligible,” and under what conditions, remains entirely at China’s discretion. 5. Future approvals will hinge on broader U.S.-China negotiations — this is part of a bigger strategic bargaining process, not a blanket liberalization.