Published: July 1, 2025
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1/ $SOFI train is taking off. Revenues are exploding, margins are expanding, and now crypto is also coming back to $SOFI. Stock is up 33% last month and it's just the beginning... Here is my $SOFI investment thesis: ๐Ÿงต

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

2/ $SOFI is rapidly turning into a one-stop shop for all financial services. They offer a full suite of banking & investment products through a fully mobile experience. This one-stop shop offers incredible value to members. Active members quadrupled since June 2021:

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

2/ Result? Revenues grew from $253 million in 2021 to $1.2 billion in 2024. What's more important is that 41% of the revenue came from fee-based sources such as Galileo, Loan Platform, Sofi Invest, etc.. It's just beginning. $SOFi will see accelerating growth and expanding multiples going forward. Let me explain:

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

3/ $SOFI was primarily a lending business. Its quarterly origination volume doubled from 2019 to 2024, growing 15% YoY. When the Fed started raising rates, it doubled down on its fintech business to compensate for the slowdown in lending. It worked incredibly.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

4/ Its financial services revenue grew 54% last year while lending grew only 18%. Staggering 53% of all revenue comes from financial services and tech platforms now. This alone rebuts the argument that $SOFI is just a bank. No, it's a giant fintech that owns a bank.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

5/ This shift to fee-based revenue will accelerate. Last year, it created a loan platform business (LPB) to drive fee-based growth. In LPB, $SOFI originates the loan to qualified borrowers in its user base on behalf of third parties in exchange for fees. Zero risk business.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

6/ Loan Platform Business scaled incredibly fast. After launch in Q3 2024, it added $100 million fee-based incremental revenue. This is just the beginning. $SOFI signed a $5 billion deal with Blue Owl Financials in April in addition to the $2 billion they signed with Fortress Capital in Q4 2024. LBP will generate $200-$250 million fee-based revenue only from these deals.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

7/ Lending is also set to accelerate alongside fee-based businesses. After the Fed cut rates last September, its loan originations grew by 66% while the segment revenue grew by 27%. As the Fed is set to cut rates once again in its September meeting, lending can accelerate even further.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

8/ Crypto is also coming back to $SOFI. Crypto is how modern brokerages like $HOOD grew so fast. It's a cash-cow. For reference, $HOOD generated over $330 million in crypto revenue last quarter, and it was 30% of their total revenue. They have already recruited some test users for crypto transactions.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

9/ Global payments are coming too. $SOFI will use Bitcoin to convert the USD to international currencies. This is a giant market that is completely fee-based. Listen from the CEO himself:

10/ It's still attractive. Management expected 26% annual revenue growth by 2026 and 20% annual growth beyond that until 2030. This was excluding crypto. Now that crypto is coming back and Level-1 Options and global money remittance are about to be launched too, I think it can grow 25% annually until 2030. This gives us $8.2 billion in revenue in 2030. Leading digital banks like $NU have above 20% net margin. Even if we assume $SOFI net margin will be just 20%, it'll generate $1.6 billion net income. At 25 times exit multiple, we will get a $24 billion company. It's valued at $20 billion today. Given the quality of the company and serious growth potential beyond the forecast period, I think it's a favorable proposition.

Image in tweet by Oguz O. | ๐• Capitalist ๐Ÿ’ธ

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