tithe (I halved the amount who attend mass). Let’s say that’s a couple, so 7 households each year cease to give, on average. Multiply that by 5 years and what parish can sustain itself when it loses 35 tithing households? Very few. 2) Closures to rapidly pick up pace. Again,

the calculations in #1 above are just for the first five years. Deaths will increase exponentially by year 10. And this doesn’t take into account the young people who leave the faith (13% retention rate at the new mass). So the boomers won’t be replaced and they won’t be the only

ones who cease to tithe as other parishioners leave for Protestantism, atheism or just nothing in particular. Add in progressive leaning parishes who fly the rainbow flag (even worse retention) and you’ve got a complete implosion on the very near horizon. #3 closures will be

uneven. The USA is undergoing a second, reverse, great migration with many moving to the sunbelt states. Diocese in the south will likely not see parish closure collapse at the same rate as the diocese in northern, traditionally Catholic states. But they will still close, just

slower. Migration doesn’t solve the population problem. It’s a leaky band aide that just buys some time. #4 Traditional parishes will continue to grow and become cramped due to TC. I ran the numbers with a TC in place factor and a TC repealed factor. Both show growth. It’s just

a matter of the speed. Keep in mind traditional parishes have 3.4 children/woman and a 75% retention rate. What’s stopping them now is building access due to TC which forces hundreds of families into limited spaces. Here’s the projection below (I double checked all the AI math).

That’s outstanding. Note that this does NOT include the SSPX which will continue to grow parallel to these diocesan and indult TLMs. #5 Traditional Catholics will gain influence with each passing year. With the growth of the TLM parishes and the subsequent implosion of the NO

parishes, the TLM attending Catholics will have increasing weight to throw around. Currently TLM attending Catholics make up 11% of weekly mass attending Catholics. That’s likely to double in 5-10 years. And double again in 15-20 years. #6 Rome’s dire financial situation does

not lend itself to a long drawn out war of attrition with traditionalists. First, the war of attrition doesn’t favor the modernists as seen above and second, Rome is already at record deficits. Sooner or later they’ll have to request $ from traditionalist. Pope Leo XIV already

has. Anthony Stine reported on this yesterday. So traditionalists will have both increasing numbers and increasing financial weight as time passes on. Literally with each passing year. Rome could ideologically plug its ears and stomp its feet but that’s unlikely. Money talks.

Even with TC still in place it won’t stop the money hemorrhaging out of these parishes. #7 TC needs to be repealed not so the above will happen (it will regardless) but so that the Church can gracefully transition to this smaller state and mitigate some of the loss. NO parishes

still inhabit some beautiful buildings and they are at risk if closures happen to quickly - quicker than TLM communities can grow to inherit these parishes. If TC keeps the growth slowed, we could lose many historical churches to Protestants, Muslims, or secular projects. #8

the reaction from the hierarchy will be most fascinating to watch as the situation on the ground will present them with choices to make. But as more and more priests lean traditional, eventually that damn will break too. Buckle up! END THREAD