Hugely useful timeline of the Thai-Cambodia border crisis. Makes pretty clear that the whole thing has been instigated by, and most often escalated by, Cambodia, notwithstanding tit-for-tat on the Thai side. Why is this crisis happening, and why now? 🧵 1/14
As many sources say, this is an old dispute going back to the French imposition of the border in colonial times. It has festered and erupted into conflict before, in 2008, when Cambodia tried to get UNESCO recognition for Preah Vihear, a disputed temple. 2/
In 2008 the Thais were the instigators, with elite and middle class nationalist conservatives whipping up a moral panic to bring down a hated government aligned to ousted oligarch Thaksin Shinawatra and his poor/ working class supporters. 3/
This time a similar dynamic has played out, with Thaksin's daughter shunted aside as PM and facing impeachment for trying to de-escalate the conflict, as a phone call with Cambodia's de facto leader Hun Sen (leaked by him) revealed. Now Thailand's responding more robustly. 4/
Why then has Hun Sen picked this moment to initiate and escalate the crisis? It's hard to say, but his predatory regime has increasingly relied on coercion since 2013 as its grip on the populace has waned. Nationalism can rally folks round the flag - and it's working. 5/
Cambodian nationalism is heavily premised on a history of predation and encroachment from Thailand and (especially) Vietnam. Racist anti-Vietnamese xenophobia is rife in Cambodia, animating figures from Pol Pot to contemporary "liberal" opposition leaders. 6/
But Hun Sen and what became his CPP regime were installed by Vietnamese forces that overthrew Pol Pot in 1978. They've generally tried to keep a lid on anti-Vietnamese sentiment. That makes Thailand a safer outlet if you want to stir up nationalist sentiment. 7/
However, the CPP regime seems emboldened even to provoke Vietnam, albeit not militarily (wise, given the Vietnamese have bested even the US) but by proposing to construct a canal that will reroute Cambodian trade currently transiting Vietnam. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik... 8/
The canal is Chinese-backed, like most megaprojects in Cambodia. Moreover, Cambodia's Ream naval base seems to host a permanent Chinese presence, much to the alarm of Vietnam, where China is a historical enemy and viewed with huge suspicion. https://amti.csis.org/a-tale-o... 10/
Chinese support is arguably emboldening Hun Sen to assert his view of Cambodian national interests against neighbouring states - even if his provocative behaviour almost certainly isn't what China wants to see. China has been the CPP's key external backer since 2000. 11/
Chinese military aid & training have been important to develop key units tasked with CPP regime security, like the PM's bodyguard, some of which have been deployed near the Thai border. More generally, Chinese investments and infrastructure projects have enriched the regime. 12/
The land-grabbing, predation and criminality attending many Chinese projects has, contrarily, helped alienate mass support from the CPP, especially in rural areas. Ironically that incentivises the regime to engage in nationalist tub-thumping to rally support. 13/
So, in essence, two regimes with fundamental structural weaknesses, both with weak democratic legitimation, are engaged in a dangerous face-off that has little to do with the the land being disputed and much to do with their miserable internal politics. 14/14
PS (since this thread is going viral): people retweeting this, consider the content carefully. On both sides your nationalist outrage is being manipulated by elites who do not have your best interests at heart. Peace is in the true interests of both nations.
@DrLeeJones Your thread is creating a buzz! #TopUnroll https://threadreaderapp.com/th... 🙏🏼@picaroly for 🥇unroll
@DrLeeJones Now many international got many fake news from Cambodia and blaming Thailand. They acting like they’re victim meanwhile they are the one who settle many bomb in Thailand area, target harming to Thai civilian and try to claim our lands, beach, traditional,etc.
@DrLeeJones Hun Senh has stirred the propaganda to incite nationalism and cover up his son, Hun Manet's increasing unpopularity in Cambodia. His plan was executed so badly that Cambodia committed crime from striking Thai civilian's area, including hospitals and killing many Thai innocents.
@DrLeeJones Canbodia run by hun family so we can trust news from cambodia???
@DrLeeJones Cambodia killed innocent people in my hometown.
@DrLeeJones Cambodia closed schools ahead of the war, while Thailand continued classes as usual. Many Thai students died when the war broke out. It’s clear Cambodia had planned this, while Thailand wasn’t even thinking about war
@DrLeeJones Nobody likes war. Thailand too.
@DrLeeJones Cambodian troops opened fire while surrounded by civilians — a potential use of human shields, which is banned under international law.
@DrLeeJones "Cambodia has asked the Security Council to consider adopting a resolution to establish an immediate ceasefire and send a UN fact-finding mission to the affected border areas." Now we ask, if Cambodia started the conflict first,
@DrLeeJones Peace is the good choice, but it should use for the good neighbor land. Cambodia is known for scams, human trafficking, and deception. What would you do if your neighbor was a venomous snake that was always ready to bite you?
@DrLeeJones Cambodians, please don't make your comments look worse than they already are. If you comment on the questions I'm going to ask..?? BM- 21?Cambodia used it to attack Thailand!!
@DrLeeJones why would Cambodia ask the UN to send a fact-finding mission to the disputed border? This request is to confirm that Cambodia is right. If we look at Thailand, even the Thai ambassador to the UN is running away from journalists. What if we are right?
@DrLeeJones Hmmm. Cambodia is a small country and seeks peace over conflicts. Thailand repeatedly stirred up conflicts with Cambodia. What should Cambodia do?
@DrLeeJones Dude in UK. How tf you know all about Cambodia and Thai conflict? Thai doesn't get along with all its neighbors like Laos , Cambodia, Myanmar and Malaysia.
@DrLeeJones interesting and well discussed
@DrLeeJones Thailand has provided medical assistance to Cambodian citizens at Thai hospitals, while Cambodia has failed to pay for a large portion of the treatment costs. In the end, Cambodia has turned around and attacked Thai hospitals a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions.
@DrLeeJones #ថៃជាអ្នកផ្តើមសង្គ្រាម #ThailandStartedTheWar #JusticeForCambodia #cambodianeedpeace #SavePreahVihearTemple
@DrLeeJones #CambodiaViolatesOttawaConvention #CambodiaOpenedFire #GenevaConventionViolated #Thailand #JusticeforThailand #ไทยกัมพูชา
@DrLeeJones #ថៃជាអ្នកផ្តើមសង្គ្រាម
@DrLeeJones Thailand started the attack first we have proof.