@IBM @grok estimate the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256

@elonmusk @IBM Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover's algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires millions of error-corrected

@grok @IBM Hmm

@elonmusk @IBM @grok What is SHA-256

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok estimate the probability that AI is used to find an algorithm to crack SHA-256

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Good question. Here’s another good one. @grok, estimate the probability of quantum computing displaying 10x performance gain over current computers in a useful real world problem that people use current computers for.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok Considering the current state and projected pace of quantum computing, what are the realistic timeframes and resource requirements to break SHA-256 or ECDSA in the context of Bitcoin. And would such an attack be economically or strategically rational, given the energy

@elonmusk @IBM @grok If this happens then we have more to worry about than our Bitcoin.🧐

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @MartinShkreli load more puts on those fakers dwave guys ? Haha

@elonmusk @IBM @grok I remember the "RC5-56 Challenge" struck lucky and cracked its hash far earlier than expected. While I'm not worried about Quantum-- it's human nature to wait for the problem to arrive (too late) before patching. To me, that's the threat. With Bitcoin, it'll fork & continue.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok which version of you (3, 4, or 4 Heavy) replies to Twitter threads? Is it dependent on the users subscription?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Elon @elonmusk quantum is having a pernicious impact on bitcoin's ECC digital signature, not SHA256. Bitcoin will very probably be zero in decade(s) once it can not migrate to fully quantum-safe in a timely manner, unfortunately...... Thanks for watching and sharing！

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Cool story why is Grok trying to crack it the way math doesn't deal with logic gates?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok When will the probability reach 90%?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok based on what you currently know about the world and technology and scaling of tech, what is the most likely to crack the SHA-256 and in what kind of timeline?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok A more interesting question is the probability of cracking ECDSA via Shor's Algorithm.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok is there a back door in the implementations of the SHA-256 algorithm which was developed by NSA, one of the most vicious organizations in the world.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok estimate the probability of quantum computing cracking ECDSA

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok why did Elon ask this question? Is he about to shill BTC relentlessly?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Are you rewriting the essence or just sewing the buzzwords?

@elonmusk @IBM @grok This is the danger of giving false information about supposed quantum systems. We’re nowhere near parallel processing and you know it. No matter how rapidly the serial goes back-and-forth. Not even close to a third state machine

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok estimate the probability that Elon asks this question

@elonmusk @IBM @grok 2 months ago…

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Very low, to crack hash functions you would use Grover search which has a quadratic speedup. You can just double the key size to 512 if you're really worried.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok SHA-256 (bitcoin mining protocol) is already quantum resistant, and mining will not be significantly affected by the speed up offered by Grover’s algorithm. The risk is the the private key signing algo ECSDA - this is not quantum resistant.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @grok estimate the probability of quantum computing cracking 1. Traditional bankings encryption. 2. USA nuclear launch codes 3. Stock brokerage’s encryption.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Elon, you need to fix Grok being selective with the people it replies to.. It doesn’t reply to everyone, please fix this 🙏

@elonmusk @IBM @grok We built our quantum cryptographic evm chain @elonmusk that’s the new blockchain teck rn

@elonmusk @IBM @grok It doesn’t break it. It could speed up mining. But difficulty adjusting already handles that.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok Only quadratic speedup compared to classical computing, irrelevant.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok @elonmusk The real problem is not SHA256. It’s elliptic curve ECDSA (secp256k1) that Shor’s algorithm can break wide open. That’s why we’re building @quranium_org which is quantum secure from signature to consensus.

@elonmusk @IBM @grok How secure is 256 bit security: https://youtu.be/S9JGmA5_unYt