C🅰️tSE

October 2023. BlueWalker 3 perforns well on orbit. Block1 is being designed. Ligado is in distress. AST managment identifies Ligado L-band as a _possible_ opportunity. Not likely. Far from certain. But they are aware of it. 2/

Early May 2024. Shareprice ~$2.50 Block1s being built but a couple of subsystems needs to be taken inhouse to secure supply chain. PDR 👉Preliminary Design Review of Block2. Ligado L-band is still a possibility but it does not warrant redesign of the main 617-960 array. 3/

June-July 2024 HALO industry day and HALO application. 4/

September 12 2024 Block1 satellites are launched. 4 months since Block2 PDR. Ligado’s spectrum is still tied up in litigation and had not yet entered bankruptcy or restructured. As such considered still as possible but not likely nor certain. 5/

October 23 2024. Selected into SDAs HALO vendor pool. 6/

Late 2024. Full end-2-end tests of Block1s on orbit. The new micron design validated for 618-960 MHz. 👉Talks likely took place between AST, Ligado owners and those who hold Ligado debt. 6-7 months after PDR the view on Ligado starts shifting from a low probability to likely 7/

At this point an near finalized Block2 design would preferably be made to also monetize L-band. But the servicelink array is 617-960. It’s antenna elements has flight heritage. And it swings out of the stackable cylindrical bus on one end. Like a big mighty cat. 8/

Any addition needs to come out of the other end if Telemetry, feeder links, flght computers, thrusters, reaction wherels and other common functions is to be shared. Or L-band will need to be on seperate sat? What to do? 9/

January 5 2025. Ligado files for bankrupcy. January 6-7 AST signs SSA agreement for the spectrum. The view on Ligado spectrum flips again. From Lilkely to very likely abd the design criteria base-case of future AST satellites. They need to be able to monetize L-band. 10/

So what to do? Incorporate L-band on Block2 or wait for the seperate Block3 satellites and their 1200-2400 MHz spectrum range? We can’t know for certain. But let us explore the adding of L-band to Block 2. 11/

February 2025 👉CDR Critical Design Review Final design lock-in of $ASTS Block2 design. 9 months after PDR 👉longer than expected to simply scale up Block1s ! 👉AST files major constellation changes to ITU via FCC. Adds SSO shell. Consolidate rest on 53 degrees inclined. 12/

Was something added here in early 2025? Let’s sleuth.🕵🏻‍♂️ 13/

We are now in March 2025. ASTs framework agreement closes for 45 MHz Ligado is now a certainty. AST files FM1 application. Let’s focus on it’s FM1 ODAR. It’s the only version where column one isn’t truncated. Notice Payload Module Solar Array Deployable structure row 8. 14/

Let’s now have a look at one of the latest ODAR rev5 and that deployable structure on row 8. It has 2 dm thickness. And 4 panels. 3.3 by 2.87 meters and 0.2 m thick. And it goes on the controlsat modeled as graphite. (Likely Carbon-fiber reinforced polymer ) 15/

Is that there just to support solar tiles seperately modeled on row 7? Controlsat is this size compared to the panels in stowed configuration. We know this structure is gimbaled when deployed. 17/

Based on the ODAR panel measurements and ASTs propensity to use the binary number system for subarray sizes here is one possible layout of ”the tail” if it is not just for solar power. But rather just like the main array combines solar film and a phased array. 18/

With a wide spacing for L-band (which is possible if you use a lot if gimbal and little electronic beam steering in a swash-plate like configuration to widen the field of regard. Then array fits 32 x 36 elements. 19/

If we instead assume a half wavelength spacing for Ligado bands then 64 by 72 elements. It would be much more power hungry but able to service a huge area like the main array not just lighting up ~1/2 that area by tilting the array either way. /20

Out of these two I find a sparse array on a swash-plate like tail most likely way to strap a very potent L-band capability onto Block2s It would mean much more than ability to monetize Ligado fast. PNT are in this range. Much more MSS globally to repurpose into d2c. DoD. /21

That said. The tail might just be for solar energy to the satellite bus, as managment says. 🤔 That remains to see. But then why a 1.6 meter high controlsat? The lowband array. Has a stack of 30 panels stoved. That is <~0.9 m. What packs in the other 0.7 m height? /22

All SpaceMob finds & reasoning behind this isn’t in the thread and shouldn’t be. What is in this thread is 👉Speculative. Treat it as such. I hope to have highlighted the wide range of usecases for ASTs technology. And one of many possible explanations for the tail. /23

May 13 2025. AST was added to DIU Hybrid Space Architecture vendor pool. And the FM1 tail is being built. ~3.5 x the size of an Starlink d2c array. Is it just solar? 24/n

August 2025. 👉Company is guiding delivery to launch site this same month. Which means FM1 is completed / fully assembled and if not wrapped up already in the very last tests. Including its tail. I’m at the x-app 25 tweet limit of a thread. Looking forward to ER! 🐾 25/25

@CatSE___ApeX___ Let's assume the tail is for L-Band. What does this mean for the power generation capabilities of FM1? Solar arrays on the sky side of the main array, yes? By my math we need to use 90 to 100 square meters of solar panels to deliver enough power to run all of the beams we want to

@CatSE___ApeX___ I'd like the castle with attached carriage shed please!! I believe iPilot will take one too!!

@CatSE___ApeX___ If we see an amendment to add Ligado spectrum to full constellation, then I guess that tail is for midband spectrum. That would be very bullish.