Russia’s advance near Dobropillia reflects the broader problematic dynamic, characterized by a lack of cohesive defensive lines, and undermanned units holding terrain, which can result in gradual then seemingly sudden shifts. Thread /1 (DeepStateMap)
The situation is still developing and hopefully will not result in a larger operational breakthrough, but this is a symptom of challenges and problems that many have been speaking to. I sought to cover them in this lengthy thread two weeks ago. https://x.com/KofmanMichael/st... /2
Advances around Pokrovsk had been blamed on RF diversionary-reconnaissance groups. But these are often just small assault infantry groups of 2/4/6 men, or motorcycle/buggy groups, which can bypass the porous defensive line if they can get past the drone coverage. 3/
The line is more of a series of pickets, often 2-3 man positions. Much of it is a gray area of overlapping defeat zones covering forward and behind these initial positions. Enemy assault groups seek to get through these positions and keep advancing. 4/
Ukraine has been holding the front with a deficit of infantry, and lack of reserves by depending on drone units. This has bought time, but is not sufficient to stabilize the front, or compensate for more fundamental challenges with force management and force generation. 5/
This recent advance appears to be made by dismounted infantry, and lightly motorized groups. Russian forces have progressed this year, and done so faster, with much lower use of armored fighting vehicles. This is the issue with treating armor availability as a key metric. 6/
This advance cut through a defensive line on the map, which in practice can now mean little, because this is not a war of trenches held by infantry, but of well masked positions for vehicles and small groups of infantry with large gaps in between. 7/
Prepared defenses, mines, still canalize the advance and mapping them is useful, but these lines on a map can also set the wrong expectations given battlefield dynamics. See: https://x.com/KofmanMichael/st... 8/
Hence numerous groups of 2-3 men can walk through a porous line, along with buggy or motorcycle assaults, if they are not intercepted by established defeat zones around those positions or AFU drone teams are being suppressed. 9/
Russian forces also used UMPK glide bombs extensively in this direction to help set the conditions for this breakthrough. Contrary to rumors that occasionally crop up here, there has not been a significant reduction in their efficacy. 10/
There are other accounts who do a better job of daily tracking and updates. Suffice it to say information is delayed, there are rumors flying around, but expect the situation to be worse than what is on DeepStateMap. 11/
Its important to also point to a broader problem which is the ‘not one step back’ policy, even when lacking the resources, in disadvantageous terrain, and near envelopment - rather than trading space for attrition or enabling commanders to conduct a mobile defense. 12/
Too often AFU units are forced to maintain untenable positions where the elastic defense is behind their picket positions rather than in front of them. It also leads to false reporting of positions, distrust, and creates perverse incentives that misinform the system. 13/
Another issue is costly counter attacks to regain lost positions, including those which were untenable in the first place, rather than focusing on stabilizing the front. This has led to losses among a steadily shrinking infantry component of the force. 14/
As @Tatarigami_UA writes, a collapse of the front is different in kind from a tactical breakthrough or breach. Could this advance lead to a collapse if mishandled? Yes, it could deteriorate further. But equally, it is too early to make that assessment. 15/
The defense of existing salients will prove even more difficult and this breakthrough can lead to an accelerated withdrawal from those positions. AFU is shifting units to counter the advance, but this is a sign of potentially worse things to come. 16/
From this point it is not difficult to see how this could further affect the defense of Donetsk, endangering Druzhkivka, then Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, especially considering the axis slowly pushing north of Lyman. 17/
Bottom line, its not clear yet how the situation will develop. The next few days will prove telling. But this advance is another indicator that drone units, while critical to the defense, can't fully compensate for observed challenges, or stabilize the front on their own.
@KofmanMichael Compliments on this thread. Well analyzed 👍
@KofmanMichael There have been no "sudden shifts" in this war since 2022.
@KofmanMichael Defence position maps:
@KofmanMichael In this drone warfare seizing large swaths of land is problematic as well as the supply lines required to support the advance become dangerously exposed.
@KofmanMichael It is entirely clear how this develops. Flower will bloom in all directions.
@KofmanMichael People pissing their pants thinking this is the end need to learn their history. Kaiserslacht. You'll see the parallels.
@KofmanMichael Azov is currently mopping up the incursion. More dead orcs
@KofmanMichael The Donbas battlespace is now more like the American Indian Wars. the Russians are playing the Indians, with mobility and light forces. The Ukrainians are playing the US cavalry, reacting to incursions. Unfortunately, Washington is about to betray them.
@KofmanMichael Good thread. Just one question. Why the hell did you join Valdai Club?
@KofmanMichael @threadreaderapp pls unroll
@KofmanMichael Nice present to Alaska same as Visla-Oder operation to Yalta! If we will see counter strike in coming days Ukraine likely will contain the attack if not - we will see Kharkov-2022 on their side
@KofmanMichael This is a rabbit with an open mouth, drawn by the military.
@KofmanMichael your one dimensional war strategy is correct A 2 yr old knows this is a multi dimensional war get my point please
@KofmanMichael SOF should come into the play.
@KofmanMichael Excellent thread
@KofmanMichael @threadreaderapp unroll