Take a look a Trump Trade War 1.0 vs 2.0: In Trump's first trade war, there was not a single month with tariff revenue above $10 billion. The July 2025 figures make Trump's first trade war seem like a rounding error. Clearly, if sustained, this will have massive implications.

Tariff revenue has been accelerating rapidly since March 2025: 1. March: $8 billion 2. April: $15 billion 3. May: $22 Billion 4. June: $26 Billion 5. July: $30 Billion In these 5 months alone, tariff revenue has exceeded $100 billion, even with the 90-day tariff pause.

We expect August 2025 to exceed $40 billion in tariff revenue. Particularly as Trump raised tariffs on India by 25%, Brazil by 40%, and Japan by 15%. And, August 7th, Trump announced that tariffs "take effect at midnight," significantly increasing US effective tariff rates.

So, what does this all mean? Our view for the last 5+ years has been that the US deficit spending crisis must be the top economic priority. DOGE attempted to solve this, but spending simply keeps on rising. Trump vowed to use tariff revenue to help reduce the deficit.

But, in July 2025, the US deficit jumped by a whopping $47 billion, or 19%. Total US government outlays hit $630 billion, a record high for the month. This resulted in a massive $291 BILLION deficit for July 2025 alone. Tariff revenue was just ~10% of the monthly deficit.

As a result, Gold and Bitcoin are surging. We have a combination of sustained tariffs, elevated deficit spending, and rising rate cut expectations. As we have been saying for 12+ months, this is the best possible fundamental backdrop for both Gold and Bitcoin.

The solution still comes down to spending. Despite record tariff revenues, the US spent nearly DOUBLE what it received in July. If we can reduce spending, President Trump's tariffs could significantly help eliminate the deficit. The gap is simply too big to fill right now.

At the current pace, the US is on track to raise over 1.6% of GDP from tariffs. To put this into perspective, this is more than total revenue generated from corporate income tax. Simply put, the US is generating MASSIVE amounts of revenue. We just have a spending problem.

On August 11th, President Trump extended the China tariff pause by another 90 days. On November 10th, if no further deal is reached, these tariffs will go live. If the tariffs on China take effect, we forecast annualized tariff revenue to exceed a record $500 billion.

The market continues to evolve as the tariff and deficit spending situation develops. As investors, we have been capitalizing on these shifts in the macroeconomy. Want to see how we are trading it? Subscribe below to our premium analysis: http://thekobeissiletter.com/s...

Overall, there is no denying that President Trump's tariffs have brought in record US revenues. This is half the picture for ending the US deficit spending crisis. It's going to be an interesting year ahead. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

@KobeissiLetter What does it mean? It means US companies are getting crushed because they are the ones paying the "record tariff revenue" and it won't be long before they are forced to pass on the expenses to consumers

@VolatilityVIX There is no denying that tariffs are another form of taxation. Now, if we are doing it, let's use the money wisely.

@KobeissiLetter Tariff money received still doesn’t cover the interest paid on the debt carried !

@ued_in Correct.

@KobeissiLetter Awesome job here! Tariffs are out performing and the deficit is crazy!

@matthewachang Thanks for reading and following.

@KobeissiLetter Not as rosy as suggested.

@FColoe The deficit spending crisis is our biggest problem with the least attention.

@KobeissiLetter Tariffs work. President Trump wouldn’t be using them if he didn’t think they would benefit American workers and strengthen our economy.

@KobeissiLetter We spend $7T mostly on bullshit through money laundering federal government. $350B is a drop in the bucket.

@KobeissiLetter And inflation is mostly tame compared to what was projected to happen in April

@KobeissiLetter What aspect of this are you identifying as insane? The income amount or the source of the income and damage being done to the working class by it?

@KobeissiLetter Dude, inflation will only surge and given the deficit, interest rates must rise that will further dampen gdp growth, hence your stagflation and further subdued state income. US is doomed to fail without any long term strategy.

@KobeissiLetter It’s a tax increase, a regressive tax increase on American companies ~ and consumers (who will pay 67%, acc to Goldman) The GOP is NOT anti-tax as long as the poor and working class pay

@KobeissiLetter 29.6B in tariffs last month... at this pace we’ll pay off the debt… in about 1,200 years.

@KobeissiLetter Americans will get richer because of tariffs?

@KobeissiLetter What happens when you take 30-40B a month extra from people's pockets while debts are at the highest levels (both personal debts and government debts)? Yes, the economy is likely to collapse. It will become more expensive to borrow. Bond buyers are alienated from the US by

@KobeissiLetter Tariff revenue won't last. So, it is a blip on the massive overspending path

@KobeissiLetter To earn 500 billion dollars , how much loss US will incur. We need to calculate that. The loss of orders , the increase in inflation and reset of the domestic economy will cause upheaval in Citizen pocket. The world will form new partnership and move forward. US will not find

@KobeissiLetter This is just a jubilee to sustain the broken financial system driven by usury and greed.

@KobeissiLetter That’s a lot of money from tariffs… but at what cost to consumers?

@KobeissiLetter The math suggests we are spending more despite cutting off Ukraine and NGO spending. Where?

@KobeissiLetter It’s sadly only 10% of what we take in through tax “revenues”. Is there even enough tariff receipt potential to garner replacing income taxes if we were to place 10% on everything incl services being imported to the US?

@KobeissiLetter The main question for anyone is basically, who's footing the final bill. Importers and end consumers or external suppliers? Hard to see a change in trade flows if it's all very entrenched