Not all DATs are the same; LUNA/UST were both clear 0s once it unwound. Many DATs may have softer landing spots. However, once their ability to buy disappears, you’re left with a lot of people overinvested and overlevered with the principle force driving these assets up gone

Once this happens, true conviction will be tested. I suspect there is a lot of borrowed conviction in this asset class still— Saylor’s buying, Trump family being all in, ETFs etc serve as mental cushions for people to hold and eventually over invest/overlever

Despite incredible adoption over the last years, BTC remains an incredibly reflexive asset because there are no “fundamentals” in a trad sense If you’re fortunate enough to have derisked before a correction, just start buying again when people call it a scam / failed experiment

BTC looks like a new paradigm at $150k and a scam at $50k -> this is the nature of reflexive assets where price recency drives perception and mainstream media coverage If you really have conviction, keep on stacking. Don’t borrow that conviction from someone else 🥂

There is so much similar between the current dynamics and both LUNA/UST and Grayscale GBTC/ETHE. While not exact copies, identifying the breaking point is the trade of maximum opportunity to profit or at minimum avoid losses Good luck 🙏

clear as day rn we’ve been in a v Goldilocks market for a while. Imagine the logical opposite of that when everything looks horrendous. On a long enough time scale, that is coming. You’ll want to have sold/shorted long before that so you can buy when it seems retarded to do so

@Evan_ss6 Isn’t a DAT basically the same thing as the old school comp/dai loop? There isn’t a mint function to cover debt like in luna. If the leverage blows up it’s not going to print infinity eth. The market will clear at some price.

@aeyakovenko I say as much in the very next tweet :)

@Evan_ss6 So what is the trade supposed to be here ?

@thedefivillain good traders take profit; great traders flip and have great expression on their trades

@Evan_ss6 Heh

@lazyvillager1 this is my quant ^

@Evan_ss6 Nah bro debasement

@KeepingItGWild We had a lot of debasement on the move from $69k to $15k

@Evan_ss6 Would agree The suits aren’t gonna let Saylor just win it all They will want cheaper Bitcoin at some point as well He is a massive risk just as SBF was Yes, he’s based as fuck But it doesn’t matter MSTR liquidation marks this next bear cycle bottom

@Evan_ss6 The market tells the same lesson in new costumes each time: the impatient are the ones who lose.

@Evan_ss6 idk why my extension is doing this. weird

@Evan_ss6 do you think it will happen very soon? or will the narratives live on for a while longer?

@Evan_ss6 Exactly bro even being right too early will ruin the timing of the short just like in the whole game Luna now in dat and mstr

@Evan_ss6 timing is everything in these cycles

@Evan_ss6 great minds think alike (and fools seldom differ tho lol) But I’m with you 🤝

@Evan_ss6 Time to short? We might retire this circle if it's Absolute

@Evan_ss6 The thing to do was to short UST. The perfect low risk, high reward setup.

@Evan_ss6 glad i wasn't here that part of the cycle, my friend said LUNA would be the next bitcoin lmfao

@Evan_ss6 exactly, just wait for the right moment to ride the wave

@Evan_ss6 same ending

@Evan_ss6 Timing is everything bro

@Evan_ss6 timing the implosion is the real alpha, not just spotting it

@Evan_ss6 Smart take, timing is everything

@Evan_ss6 So you think MSTR is going to blow up?

@Evan_ss6 What is obvious is to short coins where majority of holders are blacks

@Evan_ss6 the DATs are nothing like Luna. they wont be forced to unwind (unless they start with leverage). sure, there will be another bear market eventually but eth hasnt even broken previous ath yet

@Evan_ss6 It does feel that way. Many DATs are selling share to buy rather than taking on debt and I think they will survive. Microstrategy scares me with the amount of debt and preferred shares they are taking on while they don't have cash flow to service that liability.

@Evan_ss6 The narrative is picking up. Just like the whispers of gox and ftx insolvency. Eventually it becomes self fulfilling