First, let's talk about an important ally, the EU. The details are out and I would say this is actually rather good for the EU in the context of out of control Trump tariffs. Why? EU tariffs are NOT stacked. They are ceilings. As in, they get 15% max, including sectoral tariffs

Meaning, to trade for this 15%, the EU is falling closer into the US orbit via investment and trade as well as defense, which it is working on being more self sufficient with increased spending but not just yet. Anyway, what can you say about other allies? It means South Korea

So here is Asia so far. Note for China, it's actually 55% if we include Trump 1.0 but here is just Trump 2.0. India sticks out like a sore thumb with the added 25%. Even before, 25% is second highest. China at 55% is highest if we include Trump 1.0.

In the Miran paper, Trump is reorganizing allies/neutral/siding with Russia/China and then finally Russia/China. So now we see that the EU, Japan, and SK are falling into US orbit of having 15% (only EU is confirmed that tariffs are not stacked so far) and will be drawn closer

First, I don't work in the Trump admin or have any INSIDE knowledge. This is just my read on what I have seen in actions, and while they have oscillated in intensity, the DIRECTION has been clear. Trump knows who the adversaries are. Russia and China. They are not our friends.

Here is a timeline of US-India relations in case you are interested. A bit of a history lesson for those not as familiar starting from PM Nehru's 1949 visit to the US. https://www.cfr.org/timeline/u...

Okay, this can go on too long so I'll go straight to the point. The assumption from the Indian side is that Trump is just being Trump and that he's upping the ante for leverage to get India to open AGRICULTURE + DAIRY. First, this is a misunderstanding. Trump actually doesn't

Here is my Times of India op-ed on why I concluded that Modi wasn't going to give Trump much. Why? Well, the UK does was very LIGHT in how much India was going to open up. It was supposedly a free trade agreement but the opening up is very gradual. And there's nothing wrong

So here is why I want to go back to the Miran paper on how Trump team sees India. First, India pivot is what the geopolitical experts in DC etc thought of as they, well, under Obama, started to move to shore up the Asia Pacific to counter China. Remember TPP? Dead under Trump

Is this a China/Russia win? Well, Russia has always been able to count in India as a friend and buyer of oil since 2022, so it I suppose can count on it more. For India, the relationship with Russia is not just about oil but arms and hedge to China. Given the fact that it is

So the question is what comes next if Trump team decides to stick with 50%. I suppose there can be retaliation and what not but I doubt it. Why? India tariffs are high so no need to retaliate. It got pretty high tariffs. It can move into other spheres like purchases of Boeings,

If we were to look at this optimistically, one can say that externally challenges MAY and USUALLY spur DOMESTIC REFORMS that are politically more difficult. GST rationalization is one. But the real reforms India needs is much deeper - labor, land and I suppose the agrarian

For most, they say, well, if 50% sticks, then, well that's a rounding error or say 50bps or 70bps to GDP impact. If we cut GST and rationalize it, then it's not a big deal. Growth may even go UP! That certainly can be true. But the reality is that India labor market is totally

@Trinhnomics India to Trump is easy beat. A twofer in some ways. BC the pain point is current H-1Bs and remittances.

@Trinhnomics India will not bow down to american hegemony same way china won't These countries are not mere nation but only 2 remaining civilisation states with a history of 5000 years

@Trinhnomics Do Pakistan, Bangladesh not side with China and Iran in the UN?

@Trinhnomics Good thread!

@Trinhnomics 🤔🧐