iStories recently reported that Russian recruitment was falling, citing federal budget data on sign-up bonuses. In reality, enlistment still runs above 30,000 a month, and the dip reflects changes in published data, not an actual slowdown 🧵There are a few nuances, though:
2/ They reported that several regions, including Irkutsk and Vladimir, are struggling with recruitment. That is true, and has been an issue in many areas, which helps explain the steady rise in sign-up bonuses. Some recruits even register in other regions to secure higher payouts
3/ Still, despite ever-higher bonuses, Russia has found ways to offset shortfalls by drawing from the freshly detained and pre-trial prisoners, while increasingly pressuring illegal migrants and conscripts into signing contracts.
4/ These measures affect the quality and morale of the forces and further strain an already overburdened budget. Yet quotas continue to be met. And in fairness to iStories, whose investigative work I greatly respect, they cited Janis Kluge’s calculations pointing at no decline
@Tatarigami_UA Any analysis on the petrol prices and shortage in ruzzia?
@Log85Li I am not an economist
@Tatarigami_UA Russia loses about 35K troops/month, so they are not 'maintaining' at that recruitment level.
@vanislediver They’ve had about 9,000 in surplus per month lately.
@Tatarigami_UA @abyssgayhell @threadreaderapp unroll please
@Tatarigami_UA Russia is moving to a state of war. Russia can move to total war if it is for national defense, but cannot commit vast numbers of troops to a foreign campaign due to logistics limitations. Remember, they are not the Soviet Union.
@Tatarigami_UA I could be wrong but that iStories article sounds like CIPSO bollox for the gullible.
@Tatarigami_UA And btw, in September few laws are going online with a digital military order.
@Tatarigami_UA @Euan_MacDonald Ok, just covering their losses with the bottom of the barrel…… net loss
@Tatarigami_UA Just a subtle nudge that: 37,900 per quarter (what the chart shows) in 'no way' equals "above 30,000 a month" So no, not keeping up with losses.
@Tatarigami_UA I just want to link the tweet with the original article (in English) from iStories as I think they deserve a bit of engagement from the work they did, and also people can go and read the entire article for more context, if they wish so: https://x.com/istories_eng/sta...
