The specified volumes partially went to the center of Russia, and partially went to the gas stations of the refinery owners. 2/

In the south of Russia, oil depots are empty. All fuel is sold off the wheels. There are no reserves. Fuel has been urgently removed from Siberia, which is why the Far East has gone into deep deficit. 3/

VINKs - vertically integrated holdings are afraid to sell fuel at free prices. This leads to market imbalance. Prices are kept low, but there is no fuel. Officially, inflation is low. In reality, gas stations are empty. This is how it was in the USSR before the collapse. 4/

And this is generally excellent news. Delayed scheduled repairs can lead to serious breakdowns, then there will be the most severe crisis 5/

"At a meeting with Alexander Novak, a decision was made to completely ban gasoline exports from Russia. And the volumes of fuel missing for the domestic market were decided to be purchased from Belarusian producers" -too late, Unecha was broken yesterday. Belarus will not help 6/

I laugh. Who will allow you to cancel the excise tax? Yes, you can go to jail for such proposals. 7/

And also, yesterday the news came out - Kazakhstan is strengthening control on the border with Russia in order to prevent the export of fuel from the country. This is great news. The oil pipeline to Belarus was bombed, and Kazakhstan will protect its national interests! 8/

9/ The articles show that the situation is even worse than I expected. Scheduled repairs at the refineries are due to begin soon. The oil depots in the south are empty, Belarus and Kazakhstan will not help. The crisis will deepen! Link to the article - https://iz.ru/1940768/irina-ke...

@evgen1232007 Utter nonsense. I was in Primorsky Krai just two weeks ago on a road trip. Gas stations everywhere were busy but never once a problem filling up, not even in the back of beyond. The only ‘fuel crisis’ is the one in your imagination. But hey, keep convincing yourself Russia is

@evgen1232007 Fantastic thread. Thanks for this, Evgen!!

@evgen1232007 Where's the list of russian oil refineries which still operate with their exact coordinates when you really need it.

@evgen1232007 Shit happens, that means nothing in a country as large as Russia. Ukraine on the other hand leave out of debt 100%. Even if there is peace Ukraine will hold a $1T debt. That is impossible to hold. Default, auction of the countries resources, etc. Have fun.

@evgen1232007 Hmm. Black market off-book purchases by Western entities could further drain oil reserves, grinding military maneuver to a halt … just like Hitler in 1944-45. Ironic opportunity. Bonus: Western purchaser(s) get petrol, while diminishing 🇷🇺hegemony; and saving lives.

@evgen1232007 But the military runs on diesel, right?

@evgen1232007 @threadreaderapp unroll

@evgen1232007 Typical! Let us all remind ourselves that even though the Soviets had both oil and refineries aplenty, during WW2 American aid to the USSR had to include enormous quantities of refined fuel and other petroleum products.

@evgen1232007 Kinetic sanctions have the strongest direct macroeconomic impact on the gas station country.

@evgen1232007 Drone swarms from Ukraine this weekend. lol. Let’s knock out a couple more refineries! 🔥🔥

@evgen1232007 I don't believe the Russian war economy will ever fully collapse. Even Nazi Germany was able to maintain some production right up until the end. But this will have a significant effect on the overall economy. There are so many effects from this!!!

@evgen1232007 Very good news. But what is happening in the Moscow and St Petersburg regions…..this is what matters to the Regime, not the other regions?

@evgen1232007 What percent of its refining capacity has Russia lost since 2022?

@evgen1232007 @threadreaderapp unroll please

@evgen1232007 A gas station ran bei a mafiagang. Well, without gas. And the gang is about to murder each other.

@evgen1232007 That is way faster than I expected

@evgen1232007 Excellent news. Delighted to hear this.

@evgen1232007 Its now time to start hitting gas stations in and around Moscow. They can't defend them all and taking just 10-15% offline will exacerbate the problem and make Muscovites really feel the pain of having to queue in ever longer lines just to get gasoline.

@evgen1232007 Excellent. "Gas station with nuke", now without gas.

@evgen1232007 What about diesel fuel? I guess a shortage of diesel would be more harmful for transportation and military

@evgen1232007 Further damage to the railways AND to the refineries could lead to a total breakdown of traffic, including resupply of gas stations. That is a very dangerous and hard to control (and potentially self-sustaining) situation: production halts, food supply too. Russia would go dark.

@evgen1232007 Thank You @evgen1232007 , good read!!!

@evgen1232007 All great news.

@evgen1232007 Love this for them

@evgen1232007 Good. About Belarus: They know that joining the war means their refineries will burn too and than hell will break lose with possible revolts.

@evgen1232007 I wonder what caused this...