Bull run ends in 60 days. Cycle Peak Countdown says BTC is 93% done (1,007 days in). Blowoff top odds are about to max out. Now you'll retire your bloodline or get absolutely rekt. Let me explain. (Thread)🧵
1/ Reminder about cycle maths (low→high): • 2010–2011: ~350 days • 2011–2013: 746 days • 2015–2017: 1,068 days • 2018–2021: 1,061 days • 2022-2025: 1,007 days so far. We're tracking toward 1,060–1,100 days. That literally puts us in the last 5-8%.
2/ Halving numbers update → peak timing: • 2012: 366 days • 2016: 526 days • 2020: 548 days • 2024 halving = Apr 19 → 492 days ago. Target window = Oct 19 – Nov 20, 2025 (518–580 days). That’s another reason explaining why it's 60 days away.
3/ History says the next midterm bear = 2026. Why? Here are bear market patterns (peak→trough): • 2013–2015: 411 days • 2017–2018: 364 days • 2021–2022: 376 days Might be most important warning in your career - all averaged ~370–410 days, -66% loss. Can't simply walk away.
4/ Here's why seasonality (really) matters... • August annualized return: -28% (avg -2.71%) • September annualized return: -55% (avg -6.17%) • October & November: historically strongest months. Perfect alignment with the cycle peak window. Why ignore such confluence?
5/ Some long-term technicals: Weekly chart: BTC = $111,950. Mean-based supports: • 50w SMA = $97,094 • 200w SMA = $52,590 Important: SPX correlation -0.16; decoupling vs. stocks. Negative correlation often marks local lows.
6/ Sharing this medium-term vibe check below. Daily chart: • 200d BPRO = $110,500 • 200d SMA = $100,873 Indicators: RSI = 40 (weak momentum) 50d momentum = 56 ATR = 3,160 | 50d vol = 2,850 Trend intact above $110K - we're now at key support.
7/ Short-term traders are gonna love this: • CTF Trailer = bear mode, stop res $117,058 • HTF Trailer = bull mode, stop sup $113,250 (close below -> bear) Momentum Bands define trading range and demand ($110.2K–$112K) vs supply ($116.6K–$118.4K) zones. Don't ignore onchain👇
8/ On-chain + mining: • Mining cost = $97,124 • Ratio = 0.84 → profitable, no stress • NUPL = 0.538 • MVRV = 2.3 On-chain data = still healthy, no capitulation risk. Casual calendar correction for now. So, no need to worry - unless ETFs go bonkers...
9/ Observe these ETF flows closely: • BTC Spot ETF vol = $382M (24h) • Net flow = -$194M (Aug 21) • Cumulative vol = $1.19T • AUM = $160.4B Short-term skewed to outflows, but institutions remain heavily positioned.
10/ Key takeaway is this: We're 60 days away from Bitcoin’s historical blow-off window (Oct 15 – Nov 15, 2025); last Oct week. ETFs record outflows, but cycle + halving math + seasonality all point to Q4 grand finale. (for full ETH review - see below) https://x.com/crypto_birb/stat...
If found this helpful, I’d appreciate if you can: 1. Follow me @crypto_birb for CMT alpha 2. RT & bookmark this thread 3. Notis on (more coming) Thanks for all the love in comments👊
@crypto_birb Great analysis — detailed, well-reasoned, and fundamentally strong. That said, I believe you’re a bit late. #BTC has already topped, or at least has nothing meaningful left in the tank. Large, long-term holders have rotated into $ETH and that rotation was the key turning point
@crypto_birb Gold after etfs 2004-2011 bull market, be smart and stop talking about nonsense the game is changed
@Dawkalongterm as in?
@crypto_birb Do you sell these crystal balls? If so, where can I get one!?
@crypto_birb Who agrees that it ends this year? Or does it end in 2026?
@crypto_birb Great post. Remember people this is not a normal run. Everything is being done to shake you out. Stack leading projects. Support communities.
@crypto_birb Great thread, backed up with data unlike many others opinions. We will still see people calling for an extended cycle in the euphoria. Let’s see how this plays out
@VictoryCrypto1 thanks for commenting Victory! 100% you're right.
@crypto_birb Anyone who said this cycle is different is sniffing a weird batch of hopium. It will be the same, one way or another.
@crypto_birb Remind me in 60 days
@NoToKYC who?
@crypto_birb so just continue to HODL like I have been since 2017...got it :)
@crypto_birb ⏳ Bull run ends in ~60 days 🚨 BTC 93% through its cycle ⚡ Blowoff top incoming—decisions matter 💎🧵
@thewitchofweb3 Decision Time
@crypto_birb The time to go home is near.
@AltcoinGump yes