1/x the $139B igaming industry is running out of time. built on opaque odds, manipulated lines, deposit limits, and withdrawl delays. the classic sportsbooks have been robbing users blind for decades. the clock is ticking 🧵
2/x a few guys behind closed doors decide the odds, then hide behind high vig and max bet limits to protect themselves. but prediction markets have built something better and it after a certain point it won't be able to be stopped
3/x in traditional sportsbooks odds are dictated. In prediction markets odds emerge. from whales, market makers, experts, hobbists, the public, from signal, from noise, etc. the truth is bought, sold, and priced in real time. and the more volume flows in the more efficient the
4/x the market becomes. vig drops, edge collapses and fairness emrges. legacy sportsbooks try to bribe players using promos, bonuses etc, financed by the huge house edge and high vig this works until it doesn't. once the promo runs dry, what's left?
5/x > high vig > max bets limit > withdrawls under review > flagged accounts
6/x web 2 sportsbooks have 2 options: 1. integrate prediction makret infra and optimize their odds. Use polymarket under the hood, let the truth be priced and not dictate it. 2. fight it. get drained from liquidity, stop giving promos, cut bonuses, lose users and enter a death
7/x spiral to zero. There is no third path. adapt or get burried by efficiency
@probabilitygod “manipulated lines” “a few guys behind closed doors decide the odds” “in traditional sportsbooks odds are dictated” ^ tbh none of this is true — lines/odds are pretty efficient and mostly react to market forces, especially with tools like oddsjam helping arb away mispricings
@giaset bro... most web2 books literally copy-paste odds from the same providers, they're just wrappers of the same feed. try placing a contrarian bet and enjoy the $3.2 max bet. "real market forces" ofc arbs + sharps help correct mispricings in the system, but the system itself is
@probabilitygod 1/3 I recommend you to find out something about 1xBet, one of the largest global sportsbook. It was founded and is controlled by mafia and criminals from Russia.
@Dan707117 đź’Żđź’Ż will look into it
@probabilitygod Everything you said here is true I have my own personal beef with sportsbooks being unfair especially when you win
@probabilitygod Good read 🫡