Getting Bitcoin to $1 million by 2035 will require over a trillion dollars in fresh capital. Think of it as a crime scene. For Bitcoin to steal $1 trillion from the fiat system, it needs three things: means, motive, and opportunity. The means? That $10 trillion annual money
@dotkrueger $1 trillion? Are you sure
@dotkrueger I’m of the mindset it may well happen before 2035👍🏽
@MatthewRyanCase sometime in 2030 to 2035 range.
@dotkrueger "a crime scene" that's a great way to frame a deterministic theory that ignores things like regulatory crackdowns black swans or competition from other assets
@dotkrueger How much of bitcoin’s value growth will come from absorbing capital and how much will come from debasement of fiat currencies against it? The fact that we tie the current value of it against USD is fundamentally flawed. It should be pegged against a stable benchmark, like USD
@dotkrueger Why PYTH? is it’s because it’s close to pathetic? WTF not Bitcoin? Wankers
@dotkrueger The government already told us we're going to "grow" our way out of debt (inflation) and they've shown that they won't let American companies go under due to AI disruption (QE/TARP/bailouts). The only logical conclusion is Bitcoin and assets will go to the moon.
@dotkrueger Clinical. Thanks for reminding the kids that it may take a decade.
@dotkrueger I respect your conservative analysis but there probably will be a “suddenly” moment which would likely reach higher numbers in a shorter time frame
@dotkrueger This framing is sharp.
@dotkrueger I’ve been in the 2030 camp. I think Bitcoin is easily $500k by 2030 but I think $1M is higher probability
@dotkrueger Insanely bearish
@dotkrueger Claude type of post over here Fred
@dotkrueger The faster fiat currencies lose purchasing power, the faster people will gain awareness, and the faster they will want to protect themselves
@dotkrueger Easy. 204 countries in the world... If 25% adds bitcoin the their reserve.. 20 counties X an average of 10B each, then you have 51 x 10 = 510B. The other 500B will come from all other sources...
@dotkrueger that's a lot of fiat to flip for bitcoin, imo
@dotkrueger So a 25% CAGR for the next 10 years to get to $1M by 2035? Incredibly bearish. We’ll reach that within 3-5 years.
@dotkrueger That’s a solid framework means motive and opportunity. Makes the $1M BTC by 2035 case sound less like hopium and more like simple math.
@dotkrueger The block reward is 3.125, will be 1.5625 in 2028, and will end at 0.78125 in 2032-2035. That's roughly 210,000*(3.125*3.33 + 1.5625*4 + 0.78125*2.67)=3,935,859.375 BTC mined by 2035. At $1 million/BTC that's $3.9358594 trillion. Are you expecting an average price of $250k?
@dotkrueger $1 million by 2026
@dotkrueger A scenario that's been running through my mind...a major country strategically starts printing to acquire BTC and eventually transition its monetary system. Maybe there are some already quietly doing this.
@dotkrueger Stop and just shill #spx6900 we all know you want too.
@dotkrueger Pretty bearish. With the most influential RIA now recommending a btc allocation of between 10% to 40%, we should get there way more quickly.
@dotkrueger Really good post Fred
@dotkrueger I believe that Bitcoin will explode one day.
@dotkrueger Crypto heist in progress
@dotkrueger so bitcoin is planning the perfect heist on fiat? Like that we're all just accomplices in this trillion-dollar crime scene. guess my wallet is the getaway car lol
@dotkrueger seems more than possible
@dotkrueger Bitcoin’s $1M goal needs $1T, plus means, motive, chance
@dotkrueger Sadly 1 million dollars in 2035 might be inflated to 100000 in today's dollars. Regardless number go up is always welcome .
@dotkrueger There are only 84M @litecoin 'might make sense to get some' 'dont have the time' dyor Have some GUUTs: 21M $BTC, 84M $LTC, 45B $ADA