Published: August 29, 2025
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OpenAI fired this 23-year-old from their Superalignment team. But he turned his insider knowledge into a $1.5B fund that's outperforming Wall Street by 700% this year. He says maybe ~200 people in SF understand what's *actually* happening in AI right now. Here's his thesis: 🧵

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay
Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

Meet Leopold Aschenbrenner. He graduated from Columbia as valedictorian at 19 with triple degrees in math, stats, and economics. In 2023, he joined OpenAI's Superalignment team under Ilya Sutskever to work on one of AI's most critical challenges:

How to control superintelligent systems. But working inside the world's leading AI lab, he saw something that terrified him: Security flaws that could hand America's AI secrets to foreign adversaries. So in April 2024, he shared his concerns in a memo to external researchers.

OpenAI's response was swift - they fired him. But losing his job freed Aschenbrenner to speak publicly about what he'd witnessed. Two months later, he published a 165-page analysis that instantly went viral across Silicon Valley:

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

"Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" His thesis was simple and revolutionary: The world is sleepwalking into the biggest transformation in human history.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

"Right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness." His core prediction? Most people think AGI won't happen for decades. Leopold thinks it happens by 2027. In his essays, he maps out exactly how:

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

First, compute scaling. Companies are building bigger, more powerful AI training systems annually. The raw computational power keeps growing exponentially.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

Second, algorithmic breakthroughs. Researchers keep discovering better ways to train AI models. The software methods themselves are getting dramatically more efficient.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

Third, "unhobbling" existing AI systems. This is where his analysis becomes most fascinating IMO. Current AI models like GPT-5 already have much of the raw intelligence needed for complex tasks. But they're artificially constrained as chatbots that can only respond to prompts.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

When you multiply all three factors together, you get 27x annual improvement in effective AI capability. Aschenbrenner writes: "AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. That doesn't require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph."

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

But Aschenbrenner didn't stop at just writing about his prediction. He decided to profit from it. In mid-2024, he launched Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund named directly after his thesis. Despite zero investing experience, he attracted heavyweight backers:

• Patrick and John Collison (Stripe founders) • Nat Friedman (former GitHub CEO) • Daniel Gross (YC partner) His strategy was straightforward: bet on the infrastructure that will power AGI. The fund concentrated on companies that'd benefit from massive AI compute demand:

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

• Major semiconductor positions (Intel, VanEck Semiconductor ETF) • 5.8% stake in Core Scientific (data centers for AI compute) • Power companies (Vistra Corp, Constellation Energy) • Broadcom and other AI infrastructure plays The results speak for themselves...

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

First half of 2025: 47% returns net of fees vs S&P 500's 6% gain. The fund now manages over $1.5 billion. Absolutely remarkable performance for a 23-year-old with no fund management experience. Aschenbrenner's thesis is exactly why we built Giza Protocol.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

Our agents represent "unhobbling" in practice. At Giza, we've built autonomous financial agents that operate exactly as Leopold describes: Intelligent systems that can plan, execute, and optimize continuously without human intervention.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

Our agents autonomously move your capital to wherever returns are highest. Never sleeping. Never missing opportunities. Never letting emotions cloud judgment. 100% personalized to your capital size and risk preferences.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

We've already processed over $1.5 billion in agentic volume, significantly outperforming human strategies. Start earning with intelligent agents here: https://arma.xyz

If you're new here... I’m Renç, CEO @gizatechxyz. We're building the infrastructure for AI agents to autonomously optimize your portfolio across all of DeFi, 24/7. Follow me @renckorzay for more as we scale Giza at the intersection of AI x crypto.

Image in tweet by Renç Korzay

@renckorzay Wild trajectory

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