The headline reason for the collapse of housebuilding is the establishment of a quango called the Building Safety Regulator, whose approval has been required since April 2024 (after a transitional period starting in 2023) for all tall buildings. The BSR immediately became

One problem is that the BSR not only approves applications slowly – it generally doesn’t approve them at all. In fact, the BSR rejects about 70% of applications. This is a staggering figure. The British planning system (itself not always a model of predictability!) rejects just

The next problem will be familiar to some readers: the second staircase regulation, which requires that all tallish buildings have at least two staircases, eating up much of their floorplate. The fascinating thing about the second staircase rule is that the Government knew it was

Surprisingly, however, developers universally see second staircases as less important than another, less well known, rule: dual aspect. For a dwelling to be ‘dual aspect’ is for it to have windows on two facades. The GLA’s planners think this is a nice feature for dwellings to

At this point, some readers may protest – what about macroeconomic forces? The protest is correct, up to a point. Interest rates have risen, making mortgages more expensive and thus depressing buying power. Various materials have become more expensive because of wars and

We return, then, to bad regulations. Next on the list is leasehold reform. In Britain, when an apartment building is sold, the fabric of the building and the shared areas are usually owned by a freeholder, while the individual apartments are sold on leasehold. The numerically

Another problem comes in the form of the new landfill tax. At present, potentially toxic landfill is taxed at £126.15 per tonne, while harmless inert waste like soil or concrete is taxed at £4.05, and nothing at all if it is filling up quarries. Almost all landfill from

None of this is to mention the various background factors, like the fact that the planning system releases only a thin trickle of sites for development in London, or the enormous ‘affordable housing’ tariffs that the GLA imposes on development. I pass over these because they are

And so we arrive at the remarkable situation, where almost nothing is being built in London. Remember that London is a city where floorspace values are several times higher than they are in most of Britain – higher than they have been in almost any time or place in the history of

Now, nearly all of these factors are specific to London and a few other large cities. Elsewhere, the prospects for building are much brighter. Across the Kingdom, planning consultants are furiously at work, drawing up applications to build on green belt sites marked for release

@SCP_Hughes Given this @grok what will London houses prices do over the next 5 years. Factor in the massive assault on private property and new taxes on citizens

@SCP_Hughes Why should housing expand if the birth rate tells us the population is shrinking?

@SCP_Hughes We're overpopulated.

@SCP_Hughes In London itself I have no specific knowledge, but in the UK in general I know with a certainty that the cost of raw materials have sky-rocketed, to the point where the cost of the build has risen dramatically independent of the land cost and labour costs. I doubt this is totally

@SCP_Hughes The elephant in the room has been the effect of help to buy which inflated new build prices that have yet to come down. Of course they cannot now due to increased building costs as outlined in post. Supply has been cut by major house builders to maintain price point and

@SCP_Hughes where will you build them? with what transport system will they travel to work?

@SCP_Hughes I’d say, for London, this is pretty close to the mark (I have insider knowledge).

@SCP_Hughes Building materials costs too high & workmen being charged for driving into London…must be contributing..NetZero nonsense is destroying everything!

@SCP_Hughes Follow the money

@SCP_Hughes Incredibly interesting thread - bookmarked

@SCP_Hughes A myriad of policies that make us all poorer

@SCP_Hughes Death by 1000 cuts

@SCP_Hughes The UK white population is as bad as the population of any country that Trump described as "shitholes", but for completely opposite reasons. They tolerate evil just as much as Somalia or Gaza do, just of the opposite kind.

@SCP_Hughes An entertaining factor is that Evil Ed's net Zero dogma buggers the cement and concrete sector; they are energy intensive products which are carbon intensive too. We're not producing the raw mats. We're losing the actual ability to build anything. It'd be funny if not so scary

@SCP_Hughes @threadreaderapp unroll

@SCP_Hughes Town planner here. Cutting regs won't speed up house building. We have about 6 massive housebuilding companies that have a monopoly on development, with house prices so high it is against their interests to build in any great capacity as new build prices would drop 👍

@SCP_Hughes We do not need more houses.

@SCP_Hughes The BSR is the response to Grenfell. I don't think that the risks of Grenfell are well measured and balanced vs risk of homelessness.

@SCP_Hughes Guess who build houses, those annoying working class white people!

@SCP_Hughes I think that at the present time, the idiots are in charge of our country. However, when it comes to planning in London, it is the gibbering idiots who are in charge. They should all be gathered up and transported to St Kilda and left without a boat.

@SCP_Hughes What? I go to london approximately once a month and all i see is skyscrapers being built everywhere. We need less building not more.

@SCP_Hughes @CeeMacBee Should peak again around 4 years from the next real estate cycle start which is around 2029-2030…in the meantime….watch out below…we are slowly topping out in the current real estate cycle

@SCP_Hughes Looks very much like the continuation of a trend since the Brexit vote. What a surprise.

@SCP_Hughes Look at the trend before April 2024.. This is propaganda

@SCP_Hughes Beautifully put. Who are you working with to try to get the need to change across to the government?

@SCP_Hughes Major reform (restrictions) of the BTL market has also had a massive effect. There isn't market size anymore of viable buyers. It has also removed a vital off-ramp for developers with expensive unsold stock, making development much riskier