1/ Cycle length: 1,017 days since the Nov 2022 low. Prior bulls peak at 1,060–1,100 days. That places the target in late Oct–mid Nov 2025. About 50 days ahead. More proof follows.

2/ Halving → peak: April 2024 was 503 days ago. History says peaks arrive 518–580 days post-halving. We’re 77–86% through that window. Basically, entering the hot zone. Hot means careful!

3/ Bear in the making: After top, BTC always drops 70-80% over 370–410 days. That risk maps to roughly Q1–Q2 2026. Historical probability for 2026 bear is 100% (!) But first - blowoff.

4/ Seasonality: September is the weakest month (avg −6.17%). Q3 stats are mixed—median +0.80% and positive total points, but average −2.10% due to a few large losers. Typical pattern: Sept poor → Oct/Nov strength. Key date: Sept 17th.

5/ Weekly chart (cycle pulse): $BTC now at $109.8K pullback. ATH $124.1K (Aug 14). Supports: 50w SMA $95.9K, 200w SMA $52.3K. 7-week SPX correlation −0.25 (decoupling). Very low correlation marks key reversals.

6/ Daily Chart Technicals: 200d BPRO $111.0K; 200d SMA $101.5K; RSI 43; ATR 3,000; 50d vol 2,940. Local support $107.7–$108.7K; Local resistance $113.0–$114.1K. Here's more👇 https://x.com/crypto_birb/stat...

7/ Directions - what next: CTF/HTF Trailers both in bear mode. ATR-based breaking points: $112,758 / $114,292. Neutral/bearish below those; local structure safe above $107–108K. Below, bears can get aggressive. Secondary corrections dip 20-30%. Luckily, miners hanging on.

8/ On-chain & mining: Mining cost $95.4K (cost/price ≈0.86); Miners healthy, capitulation risk negligible. NUPL 0.527; MVRV 2.20; >90% supply in profit. But there's more to this game.

9/ Let's talk big guys: ETFs 24h spot volume $630.94M; Net flow +$332.8M on Sept 3 (first strong inflow after August outflows). AUM marks up $155.8B: ⇉ BlackRock $81.44B, ⇉ Fidelity $35.28B, ⇉ GBTC $19.8B. Spot is 93.54% mkt share. Now, what does it all mean?⤵️

10/ Put simply: We’re 96% complete. 50 days to the historic peak window. Key supports held, on-chain resilient, ETFs minor shopping (AUM down $13 billion from peak). September mission: don't die. Oct–Nov: peak -> altseason. Mark in calendar: Oct 22 Hungry for more?

11/ For real chads only: See my website (link in bio) or discord. Wanna go deeper and learn behind closed doors with 24/7 guidance and early warnings (proof below)? Enjoy VIP access at no cost (for some time). Click: http://bit.ly/getrichticket

If found this helpful, I’d appreciate if you: 1. Follow me @crypto_birb for CMT alpha 2. RT & bookmark this thread 3. Notis on (more coming) Thanks for all the love in comments🧡

@crypto_birb Nah, it's not ending in 50 days. It's nowhere close. We're getting rate cuts, the business cycle is about to fire off. This cycle is going to be significantly longer. Institutions ain't buying to be selling in 30 days again.

@CryptoMichNL I genuinely hope you're right (I'll make more $)

@crypto_birb love this alpha birb counting down the days with a grin and stacking sats for the grand finale

@QuantumAgeCap love that you love it

@crypto_birb You wrote well, but the bull run can't end in 50 days Organizations can't come in now and leave in a few days

@lockweb3 just watch

@crypto_birb Ends or begins? Bruh i want a refund

@crypto_rand bruh

@crypto_birb Last cycle you were waiting for Litecoin to hit $2k. You are useless.

@Jethro_granny just like your comment

@crypto_birb I'm about to enter a 100x leverage position and lie on the beach for the rest of my life.

@Pjotrbudowniczy lmao

@crypto_birb Let’s make the most out of it then brother 🤝

@BC_Richfield lfg

@crypto_birb THE CLOCK IS TICKING

@xbtKZM yessir

@crypto_birb higher imo

@yara_system lower->higher

@crypto_birb Good thread as always legend

@Justpit5 👑🫵

@crypto_birb You dont think we are going to have a little longer cycle with all the macro...world crap going on

@Telcoin2moon macro world crap going on - if anything - would make it shorter rather than longer

@crypto_birb i love when the cycle peak countdown reminds me to be poor

@dodothedegen same