Let me be blunt about Trump's position as I see it: He doesn't care about Ukrainian sovereignty or Russian security concerns. He cares about one thing only – reporting back to his voters and getting his Nobel Prize.

His entire strategy revolves around forcing both sides into a room and making them cut a deal, any deal. He wants to pivot to China, and Ukraine and Russia are just obstacles along the way—a fact China understands well and, on the contrary, wants this situation to drag on. So

Putin's calculation also has fundamentally changed, and the evidence is everywhere if you look past the propaganda. Russia's economy is hemorrhaging in ways the Kremlin can't hide anymore. The budget deficit explodes while they print rubles. There are gasoline shortages in major

The war that was supposed to happen "over there" now disrupts daily life in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Only 30% of Russians actively support continuation—that's Putin's floor. But most critically, every day this continues, Russia becomes more of a Chinese vassal state. Putin

Putin needs sufficient territorial gains to construct a victory narrative for those same 30% of Russians who support continued war. This explains his focus on Donetsk and Luhansk while demonstrating flexibility on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The domestic audience needs the

President Zelenskyy faces a particularly difficult position. His military is under pressure while his economy exists solely on Western life support. He must secure workable security guarantees for Ukraine’s future, all while managing a population justifiably resistant to

Europe's leaders also understand one brutal fact: If Trump walks away from negotiations, they inherit the entirety of the problems. Three years of "unconditional support" are met with rising domestic opposition, right-wing parties surge on anti-aid platforms. Meanwhile,

This configuration points toward a clear, if difficult, path forward. Trump will apply pressure, Putin will accept terms he can portray as a victory, Zelenskyy will likely compromise in exchange for robust security commitments, and Europe will help foot the bill to keep the U.S.

The entire negotiation will be decided by two issues: territory and security. The territorial question is a matter of framing a win for Putin’s base without causing Ukrainian society to implode. The core battle will be over the nature of the security guarantees—Ukraine needs

A settlement is possible not because of a change of heart, but because the alternative—a weakening Russia, an exhausted Ukraine, and a distracted America—presents far greater risks than an imperfect peace.

The window for this deal is measured in months, not years. The players know the escalating risks of delay, from state collapse to nuclear miscalculation, which is why, despite all the conflicting interests and disagreements, the conversations continue.

Nobody will get what they originally wanted. This war ends when the alternatives have become too costly for everyone to sustain. Right now, that reality points toward a difficult settlement that no one will love, but with which everyone can live.

Watch in full here (English subtitles available): https://youtu.be/ZUhJThtlLMI And follow for more analysis!

@khodorkovsky_en Trump must be given 3 Nobel Prizes — in Chemistry, Literature, and Peace, whatever — if he really helps bring Ukraine peace and a fair deal. He seems to have good intentions, whatever his other personal motives.

@khodorkovsky_en Why not propose a Khazar state between Russia and Ukraine?

@khodorkovsky_en The most correct resolution to this horrible things that calls itself "russia" is for it to completely collapse and go into history books like Prussia or the Ottoman empire

@khodorkovsky_en Great take

@khodorkovsky_en Mikhail, you know it and I know it. There will never be peace with Russia until Putin and his ilk are utterly defeated. Anything else is a mere pause.

@khodorkovsky_en The only real peace is crushing russia. Either economically or militarily. Trump is more likely to come to Putin's rescue than to impose real sanctions or consequences. Putin knows that EU "security guarantees" are as worthless as his promise not to attack again. He will

@khodorkovsky_en 🕯️ the best summary ever - about the chess game.

@khodorkovsky_en Excellent analysis

@khodorkovsky_en unroll @threadreaderapp

@khodorkovsky_en Keep in mind that Putin is delusional fueled by Trump’s appeasement. Putin isn’t fully cognizant of the state of the Russian economy since he surrounds himself with “yes men”. He could easily bankrupt Russia. Ironically Trump’s appeasement could be the greatest trap in history.

@khodorkovsky_en Reached their limit?! What are you talking about?! The US and Europe never wanted ruzzia to be defeated in Ukraine. That's the limit, nothing else. If Europe wanted, not a single missile would fly over Ukraine.

@khodorkovsky_en wow .. "The entire negotiation will be decided by two issues: territory and security." who would have guessed ..(to help other folks from wasting their time reading this)

@khodorkovsky_en The whole of the west and Russia is fucked, Russia burns themselves with hate and the west is too soft to notice what is going on

@khodorkovsky_en To hell with this evaluations of current situation. There is only one way this war ends and that is Ukranian victory. Regardless of the pressure and the time this drags on, Ukranians have higher motive to defend their land and they will keep doing so.

@khodorkovsky_en One more element to factor in. The UKR people, in front of future territorial concession but continued agression on their lifestyle (💯sure), ponder: what is the difference between now and after? My life is in danger now and will still be in danger later. So we continue droning

@khodorkovsky_en a settlement that no party likes is preparation for the next war Ukraine needs nuclear weapons to become a world power as North Korea is until then no peace Imperialism died with the birth of nukes Yes /No? a country with nukes beats the current 6 nuclear imperialists

@khodorkovsky_en We know that any agreement signed with the gremlins leads to more deaths later on. There is no alternative to full surrender of ruzzia in exchange of their possibility to exist at all as a federation of more than Moscow and St-Petersburg.

@khodorkovsky_en Putin is doing his best to "keep the war away". Once people in Moscow and Petersburg are forced to run into shelters twice every night, just like in Kiiv and Kharkiv, the regime support drops sharply. Jeopardizing the regime is the only thing that will make Putin negotiate.

@khodorkovsky_en You are pydaPutin horn

@khodorkovsky_en Putin can never be trusted to keep any word, deal or agreement. It is not about any chunk of territory. The R empire demands ALL of Ukraine. Total breakdown in Russia should be the goal. Leads to total withdrawal of troops and a smaller country and new governments.

@khodorkovsky_en When we see massive diesel shortages from the refinery hits in Russia is when it will become apparent that Russia cannot continue the war and may even be forced back because reinforcement of the front lines will become very problematic, Ukraine actually has a path to win imo.

@khodorkovsky_en @nickschifrin Trump supports putin 100%

@khodorkovsky_en "a path to peace" means nothing if you do not precise what kind of "peace". The only peace possible is when the orcs are defeated for good.