It's Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov's 70th birthday. 🎶 That means automatic retirement... unless the president issues a decree extending your term. Will Putin hang on to his loyal but vastly unpopular top soldier? Or will he take a chance and promote someone else? /1
(1) At the best of times, Putin is risk-averse and fears churn and change. These are not the best of times. Since 2022, he has desperately held on his ageing siloviki like Bastrykin (72), Bortnikov (73 and ill), Naryshkin (70) - even Lavrov (75). /2
(2) There was something of an heir apparent, Sergei Surovikin (now a 58 y/o stripling), but too close an association with Prigozhin saw him banished to chairing the CIS Coordinating Committee for Air Defence. Would Putin be willing to see him not just brought back... /3
...into the fold but elevated? The cadaverous but capable ColGen Teplinsky, head of the Air Assault Troops, is also mentioned as a possibility, but I'm not convinced at present he even wants this poisoned chalice /4
Ground Forces commander ColGen Mordvichev is generally regarded as having had a 'good war' but at 49, he may not yet have the authority for the position. There's also some gossip that he is not a yes man, which would sound like a reason for a Putin no... /5
(3) So while there are, of course, senior officers who are capable and loyal, it would not necessarily be an easy choice for Putin. If his practice in other such instants is anything to go by, he'll cling to Gerasimov. His philosophy seems to be... /6
...better the mediocrity you know to the potential war-winner you aren't wholly sure you can trust. Hurrah for pensionocracy. 7/end
@MarkGaleotti I thought Putin abolished automatic retirement at 70 for Marshals and Generals in 2021, leaving the length of their service up to him?
@John_ForemanCBE The 2021 decree was a technical one IMO - it still requires Putin to make a decision on their status, it just takes away the implied assumption that staying on is an unusual circumstances requiring a decree. The pension system, for eg, still assumes generals retire at 70
@MarkGaleotti Interesting thread
@MarkGaleotti Slowly but Suddenly Putin is a dead man walking. No money and Fuel is going to be insurmountable
@MarkGaleotti Means Putin goes out also?
@MarkGaleotti I doubt Putin would empower someone he doesn't have a personal relationship with, and he hasn't formed personal relationships with any of the new army guys. As Soviet army staff rotates out, Putin needs to find a protege and get close, then push him.
@MarkGaleotti It is not the best of times for Ukraine, It is the worst of times. May it be the worst of times for Russia very soon.