1/ Global PMIs for September rebounded 0.7 pt to 50, neutral for the first time this year and since Trump’s tariffs. The rise was equally driven by activity (+0.8 pt) and inflation (+0.8)
2/ Because of tariffs and the uncertainty they create, manufacturing output figures are harder to interpret. Manufacturing output rebounded to 2.5% y/y, near 2022 highs, driven by strong goods demand that preceded the tariff hikes. Global monetary easing, with a net 60% of
3/ Activity components rebounded across all regions (ex‑EMEA), with emerging markets still outperforming advanced economies, driven by Asia ex‑China
4/ By country, activity components show nearly 60% of countries are at least in expansion (>50): . India continues to substantially outperform the rest of the world . Switzerland is rebounding sharply from very low levels . Taiwan shows the most significant deterioration
5/ Regarding inflation components, the picture has shifted somewhat: . North America still has the highest pressures, with Mexico now ahead of the US . Germany remains the region with the lowest pressures . While partly expected given China’s anti‑involution measures, the rebound
6/ The still‑modest rebound in manufacturing surveys is therefore producing only a muted rise in commodity prices; a more pronounced increase will have to wait to see which factor prevails in the tariffs vs. interest‑rates battle.
