I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on X about “peak cycle” and how the economy looks late-cycle. So I wanted to tackle this head on and share a few thoughts of my own... This is from the August 21st MIT publication: A classic late-cycle economy typically has all the following
@BittelJulien Excellent points across the board. Question for you when looking at the employment picture - how do you account for the structural changes in immigration and AI affecting white collar workers?
@therealturch Robotics and AI will drive massive secular shifts in employment. @RaoulGMI and I have covered that in detail (see my pinned tweet). What I’m talking about here is the cyclical side of employment, tied to the business cycle. Do the two overlap? Of course. But as long as the
@BittelJulien Nice write up, brother. Shared.
@Micro2Macr0 Thanks! 🙏❤️
@BittelJulien couldn't agree more, great work as always Julien!
@BittelJulien Banger
@cointradernik 🙏❤️
@BittelJulien Great write-up, Julien!
@Fwiz Thanks Ryan! 🙏
@BittelJulien Excellent work 🙌🏼
@BittelJulien Amazing work 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
@BittelJulien Thank you Julien! Appreciate the share 🫡
@ukcryptoqueen 🫡❤️
@BittelJulien Great stuff as usual Julien.
@albertedwards99 Thanks Albert!
@BittelJulien Love your summaries like these, Julien Excellent job.
@BittelJulien @grok summerize this in laymens terms
@BittelJulien The problem is this time is different and we are at war. A silent war of posturing power and innovation. To win that war you need a.i. and game theory can easily dismiss all of your points. It can bring everyone a sweet surprise of 50-80% drawdowns. Your points were not Bible
@BittelJulien Early cycle lmao you are a clown
@BittelJulien Reading Julien’s posts really gives me a reality check on how much there is still to learn🙌
@BittelJulien Comprehensive take as always and why I'm happy to be an Alpha subscriber for your regular take on the platform. I fully agree with your summary and that is why I'm positioned as such for an expansionary phase. I feel the 'late cycle' narrative is coming primarily from exclusive
@BittelJulien Julien, but what if the soft landing never materializes? 👀 History shows us 2000 & 2007: liquidity was strong, SPX still rising, yet recession hit hard. If labor keeps weakening, GDP struggles, and the Fed reacts too late, isn’t the risk of a hard landing far higher than
@BittelJulien @rektmando What about inequality? No one has any money so things make look different now. This is one thing I never hear you talk about on Real Vision.
@BittelJulien Rate cuts don’t equal ‘early-cycle’—they usually start late after cracks show (2001, 2007, 2019). Temp jobs rising can be defensive, not expansion. Oil weakness often signals demand softness. Feels more like mid-cycle fragility than some fresh ‘Macro Spring.’”
@BittelJulien Really rrrrreally nice summary! One question: we wanna see T5YIE continue to rise from here, right? Or maybe I've drawn the wrong conclusion when looking for macro correlations to risk-on. That should then be the mid-cycle rising inflation part. 🤔
@BittelJulien @grok summarize the post, and tell me when will the bull peaks ?
@BittelJulien The key variable is unemployment. If indeed we don’t ease into a recession the melt up will be glorious.
@BittelJulien Agree on the data, but you're missing the elephant: demographic headwinds hitting peak velocity in 2025. Early-cycle dynamics work when you have population growth. Without it, you get Japan endless stimulus with diminishing returns and secular stagnation.
@BittelJulien Where are valuations. Concentration in indexes. Household allocation to equities. Margin. And I guess Buffett really messed up huh ?
@BittelJulien Agreed but here then the question: If jobs data is six-months back in the rear-mirror, and the FED for sure that kind of knows this - why are they going to cut? Why would they?
@BittelJulien This all makes no diff if we get a recession tho