There it is: The US Labor Department just revised -911,000 jobs out of 12 months of already reported data, the largest revision in history. This is officially ABOVE 2009 levels, with jobs data overstated by ~76,000 PER MONTH. What's next? Let us explain. (a thread)
Here's the data itself. We are seeing large revisions in consumer-oriented categories. This includes -176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality, and -226,000 jobs in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. Total private hiring was overstated by a massive -880,000 jobs.
This now marks the largest revision in history, even above 2009 levels. In 2009, the US revised -902,000 jobs out of 12 months of already reported data. We are now seeing revisions that are larger than the largest financial crisis outside of the US Great Depression.
Last month, the US revised -258,000 jobs out of the June and May jobs report. If you factor in the revisions from yesterday, June fell by another -27,000 jobs, for a total of -285,000. This also marks the LARGEST negative 2-month net revision in US history, outside of 2020.
Furthermore, take a look at the data if you exclude health care. Excluding health care, the US economy has lost -142,200 jobs over the last 4 months. June 2025 was the first month in 4+ years to see a net loss of jobs after 2-consecutive monthly downward revisions.
In fact, the US Labor Market is entirely dependent on health care job gains. Look at how many industries have LOST jobs in the past 3 months. Business and professional services along with manufacturing have lost -82,000 jobs in 3 months. This will likely be revised too.
Take a look at gold this year, now officially up more than +40%. Gold miners are now up nearly 100% YTD, or ~10 TIMES the S&P 500's return. Weakness in the labor market is not new to gold, this has been priced-in for months now. Gold knows the Fed will be forced to cut rates.
The Fed's purpose is to reduce unemployment and avoid inflation/deflation. This is the Fed's "dual mandate." Since 2021, the Fed has been laser-focused on the inflation side of this mandate. Now, it's not that inflation is gone, it's just that the labor market is worse.
In 8 days, we expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points. This will mark the first Fed rate cut in 30+ years with PCE inflation at or above 2.9%. The Fed will be cutting rates into hot inflation because the labor market is weak. Asset owners will reap the rewards.
Because inflation is on the rise, the Fed will take a "dovish but cautious" tone. Core CPI inflation is back above 3.0% and never neared the Fed's 2.0% target. This will be the first rate cut in history with stocks at record highs, Core CPI at 3.0%+, and GDP growth at 3.0%+.
The market is entering a new era of monetary policy. The macroeconomy is shifting and its implications on stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable. Want to see our outlook on the market? Subscribe to access our premium analysis below: http://thekobeissiletter.com/s...
Today's BLS revision came in nearly -230,000 jobs worse than expected. This 12-month revision of -911,000 jobs is more than the entire population of San Francisco, CA. Interest rate cuts are coming next. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
@KobeissiLetter Stagflation is here
@fossinvest It's been here for a while. And, it has been and will continue to be ironically good for stocks, Bitcoin, and gold.
@KobeissiLetter Waiting for the revision to this revision 😅
@OVVOLabs To be fair: The Fed is running monetary policy on the world's largest economy using lagging data that is revised multiple times, months after it is reported. Not exactly the definition of efficient.
@KobeissiLetter @grok is this good for people holding bitcoin ?
@KobeissiLetter @grok Explain in details
@KobeissiLetter Is it bullish for the stock market, together with the surging inflation that may reach 5% this year ?
@KobeissiLetter Billions of dollars and partially even elections ride on jobs data. How could they have been so wrong? Should be serious consequences here.
@KobeissiLetter @threadreaderapp unroll
@KobeissiLetter Can’t wait to see how the TDS propagandists at CNBC cover, spin these revisions. This is outright criminal. @JoeSquawk @steveliesman @SquawkCNBC @cvpayne @larry_kudlow @Varneyco @LizClaman @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin @MariaBartiromo @carlquintanilla @CGasparino
@KobeissiLetter Wall Street knew this. / Most Retail and politicians look at top line jobs data, but never specifics and certainly never revisions. This is how we got here. JPow- 50bps cut should be the minimum cute to rates.
@KobeissiLetter The most important question remains how did we get here? Are the these changes significantly AI or economic or lack of local manufacturing or a combination of all?
@KobeissiLetter When the jobs report drops more surprises than your uncle’s dance moves, it’s time to check the fine print.
@KobeissiLetter BUT WAIT, THERES MORE! We still have 100 million immigrants in this country!!!!
@KobeissiLetter A job market built on healthcare is very ill.
@KobeissiLetter Thanks for sharing with us this opinion.
@KobeissiLetter This revision is a wake-up call—jobs growth was way weaker than the narrative, and that’s a direct hit to the “resilient economy” thesis. Expect defensive rotations as investors digest that hiring momentum dried up months ago; sectors tied to discretionary spending could see
@KobeissiLetter @grok explain
@KobeissiLetter Numbers playing hide and seek
@KobeissiLetter The ‘strong US job market’ was just cooked books
@KobeissiLetter @grok explain