2/🧵 Lyman is a medium-sized town located in the northern corner of Donetsk Oblast' and counted about 20,000 inhabitants in 2022. Immediately after the start of the invasion, while the Russians were able to advance with almost no resistance in Luhansk and eastern Kharkiv

3/🧵 In August 2022, in fact, the Ukrainians started a small scale "preparation"counteroffensive south of Izyum, with the likely aim of pushing the Russians back to the Siversky Donets river, to strenghten Donbas' northern flank. Just a month later, the successful September 2022

4/🧵 Immediately after having recaptured Lyman, the Ukrainians "promised themselves" that this city would never be let in Russian hands again, and began digging many trench systems and obstacles, which at the time were considered extremely good fortifications against any type of

5/🧵 After the counteroffensive slowly ran out of steam, the Russians reported successes further south near Bakhmut, and the new Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive failed, the Russian command finally switched back to offensive in late 2023, state that continues to persist to this

6/🧵 Let's analyze the situation we find ourselves in right now. In white usable Ukrainian supply routes (roads and pontoons), in blue rivers. - Lyman cut on 3 sides by water obstacles. - Russian forces crossing the eastern one, Zherebets, at Zarichne, to reach Yampil, and the

7/🧵 What the Russians really want to do next: - Capture at least one of the 3: Shandryholove, Novoselivka, Drobysheve. UAV crews will accumulate there safely and, if it won't be possible to physically control the last paved road, it will be possible to have swarms of drones do

8/🧵 Ukrainian possibilities to stop this course of actions: - Immediately stabilize the Shandryholove sector and deny the Russians getting any closer to Drobysheve and Novoselivka, that is, any further advancement from the current positions. We have seen the Ukrainians sending

9/🧵 As of right now, the most dangerous part is definitely the Shandryholove sector, rather than the Yampil area. The damage that would be done by the loss of Drobysheve would be greater than the one that would be caused by the loss of Yampil, and in the latter area it's

10/🧵 Obviously, having to defend a city with only pontoon bridges to supply it does not automatically mean the loss of the city, but in the medium-long term, this would mean a worsening of your operational space and maneuver possibilities in general, as the Ukrainians would

11/🧵 What can we expect after the fall of Lyman? On the western side, I predict the Russians will try to start fighting for the very big forest between Lyman and Izyum with the aim of reaching Oskil. This will give Russian forces multiple benefits: - Anchoring their western

11/🧵 On the southern side, I expect the Russians to create large UAV crews accumulations in all of the small villages at the northern shore of the Siversky Donets' river. Especially, Brusivka, Dibrova and Yampil. These would provide Russia with a great occasion to safely strike

12/🧵 Regarding the possible Siversky Donets crossing topic, the only crossings I could expect to happen, if any, are behind Siversk. Trench systems are the least in numbers there, and the benefits if a bridgehead were consolidated would be obvious. In most other places,

13/🧵 Here we are, you've reached the end of this small thread! This time, unfortunately, I didn't have enough time to prepare any good-looking and interesting graphics, so it looks more like an organized agglomeration of own thoughts. But if you still liked it, it would be

@Playfra0 Is the Russian military still mainly using civilian vehicles instead of armored ones?

@ktac335582 yep. maybe now after having stockpiled them for some time they will have a small period of them coming back, but it's not going to be anything big. they will quickly go back to civilian vehicles.

@Playfra0 Many have been calling for the collapse of the front, and yet nothing has happened. Ukraine is holding out. That's why we shouldn't jump to conclusions before it happens.

@MrDan28601805 You are correct. I was just pointing out possible outcomes of the battle and "preparing the ground" for what could come next. But the battle is still ongoing.

@Playfra0 Great✌ Russian🇷🇺 go on👊

@Nhin1705 Yeah sorry to break it to you but if they get constantly bogged down at a 10 people village they aren't going to go very far

@Playfra0 surely encirclement would be preferable to frontal assault?

@spetsnaz9999xy Yes, definitely

@Playfra0 Heavy fortified zone. It will not easy. 🫡

@ArhangelMihai16 Yes. Strong resistance will nonetheless be offered 🛡️

@Playfra0 Your thread is creating a buzz! #TopUnroll https://threadreaderapp.com/th... 🙏🏼@yomismovaya for 🥇unroll

@Playfra0 @Schizointel Why would you post this? You’ve just compromised the entire operation. @grok contact the unit and send them this and retype this reply so it sounds smarter

@Playfra0 I've seen speculation about the fall of Pokrovsk, which the Russians are unable to conquer, and now there's talk of Lyman. Does anyone really think Ukraine will give it up easily?

@Playfra0 I cannot believe that Lyman will be battlefield again.

@Playfra0 @threadreaderapp unroll please

@Playfra0 @mfa_russia , @RussianSpoof